Shark your post SURPRISES ME!! As I recall as we went down did you not exhasberate that the NASD was overvalued at 1900?
Yes perhaps we are in a bear market counter trend rally, but lets get serious about these 2 sectors! For the record I was long MCDT at 19, EMLX at 17, QLGC at 21, MCDT at 21, EMC at 28, and AMCC at 12. Everyone of my longs were sold at the beginning of the week with all my Bio-techs(and corvis)Some were sold late last thursday.
Over the last 3-5 weeks i have been doing extensive research on fundamentals, growth cycles, out economy and the market in general. As earnings came in and even if they meet or beat the lowered #'s its where they are!!! in the current down cycle.
To many stocks are trading like it's 1/00 all over again, but their fundamentals are back in the stone age!
Regarding chips, did you listen to INTC CC, they are now back to 1992 levels of fundamentals, the same is even worse for BRCM, PMCS and VTSS.
Regarding MCDT did you listen to their CC, things are expected to get worse, the same was said for EMLX, BRCD, and EMC.
Secondly what is your opinion on this % move on all these stocks? Do you think its sustainable in a NEGATIVE earnings enviroment??
Come on SCHARK, you and VELO made the most sense (and cents) as we cratered, but your rational was even better, so now the fed moves another .50, and we rally 600 points in NASD, and some 800 points in dow, also 50% in SOX and everything is rosey again!!
GET REAL!! I see a serious game being played that will sucker more poor souls into this SEVERE BEAR TRAP!! Very simply put, FUNDAMENTALS HAVE NOT BOTTOMED so we go back to the basement where based on the 18 year bull should last for no less then 2-2.5 years. Crap DOW is like 1000 points or 10% from an all time high as we are entering a slowing period in our economy!!
Good luck my friend, as I too was suckered in for a rally at 2200 back in late Feb, I covered too many shorts, and got creamed as reality set into the nasd and the markets. Where was greeny back in Late feb, the last time we were at this resistant point?
I think we have not completed stage 3 of this bear, and I expect that capitulation stage to take longer then 1-2 months, more like 6-9.
Regarding P/E's they simply are unsustainable PERIOD!
Regarding the SOX, it should have simolar cycles as it did in late 87-90, and 93-95, the current cycle 98,99-2002.
It's nice when a board can stay consistant on direction or another of the market. The reason so many folks joined this thread was because V and yourself made incredible insight on why we were going lower, your new stand that this CTR (counter trend rally) has legs is very surprizing to me.
Maybe I'm better off staying in my cave because one thing is certain in our economy, and in our markets we are in a stage that perhaps far too many people will deny until its over. |
