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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Jan 30 4:00 PM EST

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To: Don Green who wrote (75701)	4/22/2001 10:49:42 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) of 99985

U.S. vs Japan: The answer, based on demographics, is a qualified no. Japan had a steadily rising birthrate, with a war-related interruption, until 1949. Then, for reasons I don't claim to understand, their birth rate began dropping. With a moderate reversal for a period, their birth rate basically continues to fall. Forty years after their birth rate peaked, their Market and economy peaked. We have a shorter, less virulent version of the same situation coming. Our immigration adjusted birth rate ended its plateau in 1961, and dropped through the mid-70s. This is an over-simplification, but there will be negative repricussions from the extended downtrend in the birth-rate in our country as well.

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