NG,
Do you suppose the chances remain fairly slim for meaningful P4 volume before 2002???
Why do people think that Intel will have problems delivering volume of P4s? Intel may have 1 or 2 million P4s sitting in the warehouse, and probably 25% capacity idle. Making P4s is not such a high cost increment, since the fabs are depreciating anyway. And Intel has a ton of capacity coming on-line.
The question is if the new low price will make the processor attractive to buyers. I think it will be a lot more attractive in retail than it was before. Many buyers are clueless, and once the prices fall to the price range people are willing to spend, I see no reason why they wouldn't go for a a computer that will say 1.5 GHz vs. 1.33 GHz. MHz sells.
Knowledgeble people know that even after price cuts, Athlon is more attractive from price, performance and price / performance point of view, but the differences are much smaller.
I don't think P4 is fundamentally flawed. In the current configuration, with current software, it just needs at least 50% higher clockspeed advantage over Athlon to come on top. Intel has just not been able to get that far ahead of Athlon. If the choice was 2 GHz P4 vs. 1.33 GHz Athlon at the same price, everything else being equal, I would have to think hard about which system to buy. Or 1.1 GHz Athlon vs. 1.7 GHz P4. P4 outperforms it on most benchmarks.
Regarding the pricing, I think Intel has become more reasonable about the ASP expectations. Obviously, the Muhammand didn't come to the mountain last quarter, so the mountain has to come to Muhammand, whatever the consequences. There is just no option for Intel to continue the Q1 model of maintaining pricing Intel has gotten used to in last decade and a half. Customers didn't come. And the situation was ideal for AMD to take market share from Intel. When Intel said that the situation stabilized in March, that is when Intel probably start the sweetheart deal on P4 to the big OEMs, so now they are just doing more of the same, but making it official.
Joe |
