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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 53.53+4.5%3:59 PM EST
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To: Michael Young who wrote (3534)4/22/2001 11:15:17 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
ITMN - Hi Mike - A response,

<Drugs for ideopathic type conditions have a very dismal track record. Frankly, I'm not sure IPF can really be accurately defined for trial purposes.>

It is not surprising that dealing with "ideopathic" diseases has been dismal. Likely, diseases described as "ideopathic" represented multiple diseases not a single disease. Thus, it would be partly luck to hit on a treatment that worked for enough of them to demonstrate the required P-value.

So I agree with the first part of your statement.

However, I part company on your conclusion. ("I'm not sure IPF can really be accurately defined for trial purposes.")

Here is why. (My opinions were largely formed from attending the American college of Chest Physicians meeting last fall in SF.)

Historically the disease that carried the label IPF included what are now several distinct diseases. Those distinct diseases can now be eliminated by a careful clinical and radiological workup. I watched (and talked to MD's) who carefully delineated the methods to identify IPF. Thus, it appears to me that IPF may really now constitute a single disease rather than a grouping of similar lung diseases. I do not want to represent that this is what the presenters were saying but it seems to follow. Admittedly, I am a lawyer with a very limited science background.

Thus, if we really have a fairly well defined single disease it is more likely that we will find a single treatment to work.

As always - I welcome criticism of my statements. After all, I want to get this right.
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