You are just one of many people that I read that doubt the rally, even the media is doubting it. You doubt it so much that you feel that we are going all the way back down to test the low, even lower then that, but you day trader, with method that's telling you that we are going all the way back down to the test the low, maybe lower, but you are not alone in that thought. There is a chorus that is loud and clear in singing their doubt, they will be drag along, yelling, pissing and moaning. Those doubts are sounding more like Bartok to me now, then ever before. <g> When I can't hear that moaning anymore, then I will be worried. I'm looking for the people more bullish then I am, I can't find them, and I walk around looking at floors most the time. LOL I'm always doubting rallies. Sure we went too far too fast, and we have started correcting that, but that's nothing new, it happens all the time in a rally. I will not be worried until we test the short term top more then once an fail to base. I'm looking for the market to base here, with floor at 1869 or so. We are not going to make V bottom just too much unresolved problems still, but the problems have been expressed over and over again. How many times to we need to hear those problems? They practically had mega phones on every corner in every city in the USA tell us what about the problems. Heck, they even had 5 story high out door TV's flashing at people, THE MARKET SUCKS! Ok already we know that. LOL The market is moving beyond that now. We need to finish the bottom of the U, which we have started to do and that will take time, months in fact.
I view the market like a spring with a pen attached to it with a rolling paper moving by it. First we spike as the spring is released from compression which was caused by the wholesale despair we just went through, then we have decaying oscillation as the market digest the reason for the releasing the spring. Either the oscillation dies from lack of positive input, or it gets compressed again. But every little ray of light in to the visibility problem, which we have been getting, or news out of companies that do not have that problem that have kept moving forward during it all, will build the mold of what the rally will look like. Out of that mold will emerge the companies that will be the new leaders. It's all being laid out in front of us now, were as before it was too hard to separate the bad from the good. You just have to be watching and listening. It's easier to see now then it has been for the last 18 long months.
IMHO, We have seen the low for the year. It will take something beyond what we have now to make it go lower then most recent low. Natural disaster, war, or too much time combined with even worse economy then we have now would do it. If that happens, it will bad, really bad, we can pull out the 500 numbers again and your PE problem will be resolved.
One more. The very fact we are still debating the rally, is good bullish sign. When we start to hang out on individual specific stock threads again then we can start to worry. Do you remember when you used to spend so much time on the RMBS thread? That's what I mean.
B
ps, I know that fiber article is pie in the sky now, but it's important to watch those wild ideas, you never know when one might be a sea change in the making. |
