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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 53.53

+4.5%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Michael Young who wrote (3534)	4/23/2001 9:53:42 AM
From: rkrw	Read Replies (1) of 52153

<<It can be a huge home run from here if they get IPF approval. Unfortunately I put the odds of that happening under 10%. Drugs for ideopathic type conditions have a very dismal track record. Frankly, I'm not sure IPF can really be accurately defined for trial purposes.>> Michael, I've talked to a number of pulmonary specialists. I've also corresponded with a handful of patients using Actimmune. Based on the feedback I'm getting, I put the odds of success at much greater than 50/50. $25M in off label sales expected this year. Piles of anectdotal reports. As IPF is a progressive disease there should be virtually no placebo effect. Given off label accessibility, fully enrolling the trial has been their only bottleck. This is a disease where nothing has been shown to be effective. The prognosis upon diagnosis in terms of mortality is worse than getting lung cancer. This is a potential breakthough drug and the anectdotal evidence continues to point to this. I'm not one to hype or tout stocks and I'm not trying to here. No disrespect intended but you should rethink your odds. RKRW

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