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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam
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To: Boplicity who wrote (12981)4/23/2001 4:29:32 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (2) of 13572
 
Bop, the basic thesis of that April 2000 post was that market psychology takes a long time to change, but once put in motion the change go to an extreme. That is one of the reasons that I have a lengthy period of the market stalled in a wide range (now it is 1400 to 5300, changed from the 1900 to 5300 cited last year and actually "promu;lgated two years earlier in a post I could not retrieve).

The fact that I was optimistic in assuming that 1900 will be the bottom of the range is not changing my opinion (based on rational valuations I should have used 700 as a bottom, I did not because I expect rallies in between and because of the slowness of the change in psychology, I may have been wrong). When I suggested 1900 as a potential target for this year lows, I was of course ridiculed, so I can easily accept the same criticism when that target proved to be too optimistic. My current short term scenario of an inverted W with the next low at 1850 might very well be too optimistic as well.

Zeev
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