The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum Message Board

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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum

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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (2590)	4/23/2001 5:25:38 PM
From: RobertSheldon	Read Replies (1) of 46821

A problem exists here, though. And that is the backlog and turnaround times for delivery of generators and power distribution units is now into the year and a half to two years range. And if you happen to change the spec after you've been waiting for a year? Forget it. You go back to the bottom of the pile. Data centers and office buildings can't wait that long. What to do? Yes, backlog for larger turbines now number 4 years or more. Smaller 30 and 60KW Turbines (from CPST) take about three months to deliver, but are reasonable for small installations if they are in a RAID configuration (plus this increases reliability). Ramgen, an outfit out of WA State, will be bringing to market an 800KW unit early in 2003 that will be of interest at the level you mention for datacenters and such. Companies such as NRG, CPN and other IPPs have preordered their turbines and basically have a lock on the market. We have speculated that BRK.a (Berkshire) purchase of Mid-American Energy last year was an attempt by Mr. Buffett to act as a stop loss on energy arbitrage deals we believe him to be participating in. Now comes news that BRK.a may invest $10B in utilities. Our sense is that this is a further extension of their arbitrage program that will further protect them (they would be able to deliver power or gas on the contracts that were not working out well while letting the better deals "close" to lock in profits and avoid transaction charges which are still significant. Anyway, this is a peak at our thesis . . . by the way BRK.a could be a huge player in the space. I will be in Omaha (Mr. Buffett's stomping grounds) at the end of this week trying to figure out how much of the above mentioned is correct as well as determining if there is something here that BRK.a sees even more exciting than what we have been executing on for four years. Again, these problems together with siting and permitting concerns are one reason we are still bullish on broadband services (datacenters) and "power" in general.

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