Nigeria: Gearing Up for a Volatile Presidential Campaign
stratfor.com
Summary
Presidential elections aren't until 2003, but allies of former
military ruler Gen. Ibrahim Babangida are gearing up to contest
the race. Babangida's return to Nigerian national politics would
signal a resurgence of factional politics, ensuring a volatile
presidential campaign that could threaten Nigeria's chances for
continued democracy.
Analysis
In a move illustrating a divisive trend in Nigerian politics,
associates of retired Gen. Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, Nigeria's
former military leader, formed a new political association April
9. The newly formed National Solidarity Association (NSA) largely
comprises politicians and military leaders from Nigeria's
Northern states.
Presidential elections are still two years off, but the NSA's
formation demonstrates how regional political factions, held in
check by President Olusegun Obasanjo's administration, are re-
emerging as the dominant force driving political change in
Nigeria.
Babangida's return to Nigerian national politics not only marks
the end of a political compromise between North and South, but
also sets the stage for a volatile presidential campaign that
will inflame tensions among the nation's various ethnic groups.
Moreover, as the campaign heats up and takes shape, the already
precarious balance that has held the military in check will grow
increasingly difficult to maintain.
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