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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 223.95

+1.7%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (45811)	4/23/2001 9:34:29 PM
From: brunn	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Gottfried, thanks for those numbers. They confirm what the companies have told us: this downturn has been the most sudden in recent history. I thought 1998 was a dramatic reversal, but the fall from .99 to .65-64 has taken 3 months this time vs. 7 months last time. The market will interpret the news one of two ways, depending on its fickle mood: 1. We have fallen so far so fast that it cannot go down much further, the worst must be over (variation on the "it is so bad it cannot get any worse" theory that sparked this chip rally about two weeks ago.) 2. If this is the most sudden downturn, may be it is also the most severe. If this is the case, the recent run-up might be considered premature. Previous downturns lasted up to 10 months to a year and people might start worrying that this downturn, if indeed the worst, could last even longer. Current valuations in this sector are discounting the #1 interpretation.

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