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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 317.97

-2.8%

3:59 PM EST

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To: StanX Long who wrote (45816)	4/23/2001 10:41:54 PM
From: Just_Observing	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Here is some food for thought on the latest B2B: There are 2 points to be made about the B2B 1. It was lower than expected. Analysts were expecting 0.67 (at least Joe Osha, the Merrill analyst was expecting 0.67). 2. The B2B is a ratio, and by itself, it cannot reveal the true picture. However, a number such as shipments and the B2B ratio can mathematically define the picture. The shipments of semiconductor equipment fell 12% during the last month (down to $2038.4 MM from $2294.3 MM) as compared to just a 1% fall the previous month (from $2308.4 MM to $2294.3 MM). If we had extrapolated from the previous 4 months, shipments should have fallen a paltry 2.8%. Now if shipments had fallen just 2.8%, then the B2B would have been 0.585. Thus, the sharp falloff in shipments is making the B2B appear much better than it is. Thus, we are very close to historical lows (at least the last six years) on the B2B. semi.org!OpenDocument

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