Elmer,
The complete list of "screaming buy" recommendations on this thread.
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Message 6048301
From: John Fowler
To: Tony Viola
Tony, M,
It sounds strange, but when sentiment is real negative on a stock, it seems to take a while for good news to "sink in". The major techs enjoy such a firm mentality of "sell the news", I don't think any report could have boosted INTC.
What *I think* could happen going forward... The "folks that matter" will make Intel outperform the market as they know, even if they don't admit it, Intel is less much less risky at this point than most alternatives.
I, personally, think it is a screaming buy right now.
John
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Message 2462578
From: williet
To: Elmer
Stochastics say a SCREAMING BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY.
LITTLE WILLIET
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Message 9378809
From: Joseph Pareti
To: Tony Viola
>Intel's stock has come under
>pressure due, we believe, to several
>analysts' reports citing concerns about
>Intel's unit growth for the second quarter and
>potential problems with average
>selling prices. We do not share
>these views and
>believe that Intel's
>current quarter is still on track
deja vu isn't it ? the kurlak 's fall-out lives after him.
IF INTC FALLS BELOW $55 ITS AGAIN A SCREAMING BUY. LOAD UP THERE.
THEN CASH in SOME PROFITS AT 65 AND KEEP SOME FOR THE NEXT QUANTUM
LEAP (i guess you would not want to apply the last part of the equation to AMD :-)
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Message 3008529
From: Burt Masnick
To: Paul Engel
Paul - I think I can respond as someone who has bought a fair amount of home software (let alone the stuff I've been getting in my day job to help me do my job) in the past six months. I'll list my purchases -
1. Microsoft Publisher 97
2. Scanner and (effectively scanning software)
3. Kai's PhotoSoap
4. Family TreeMaker 4.0 from Broderbund
5. Microsoft Office Professional 97
6. Cleansweep 3.0 by QuarterDeck
7. Norton Utilities 3.0
Each piece of SW is great - loaded with spiffy features, usually a lot more than I can use until I really study how to exploit all the functionality to get what I am trying to do done better or to inspire completely new applications. What they all have in common is this.
1. All load slower than can be imagined (Dell Dimension 90MHz Pentium)
2. All take up much more disk space than you would guess.
3. If the sw is an upgrade, the new features are really useful
4. I have gotten used to - but not happy with - waiting a surprisingly long time for things to get done.
Result: I am going to be in the market for a new machine, probably a 300 Mhz Pentium II, about 6 months from now. Do I absolutely need a new machine - no (I did need an additional drive and additional memory to keep going though). Is my old machine sufficient to do the jobs I try to do - yes. But it's getting to be less fun.
So even though I could keep going with my current machine, I'm gonna upgrade, keep the second machine as a backup (maybe experiment with a low cost network between the two machines).
For the same reason that most people don't drive their cars 180,000 miles, trying to ring the last possible miles out of the old clunker, people trade up because they want the safety, convenience and sometimes the implied status of a new (or recent vintage previously owned) car. We could probably all get by driving our cars way out to the edge, but most folks decide at some point that they want (for good reasons and bad) a "new" car. Some folks nowadays, including my cousin who is an SI participant, never even buy a car but simply continually lease new cars every 3 years. And cars are an order of magnitude more costly than a PC. So I'm hardly concerned about whether there will be sales of high-end PCs to the home market. There will be.
Same story in the business world. My (large) organization just got through installing for everyone in the company 133 MHz Pentium machines from Dell with 32 Meg of RAM, CD ROMS, Windows NT and a hatfull of networked applications. Only problem is that the 133 MHz Pentium slows down intolerably on big schedules with Project 98 and other common programs. CAD programs that are being ported over to NT-based PCs also are pretty slow. So there is a groundswell of screaming at my company to replace-upgrade the PCs that were just put in. So I'm hardly concerned about whether there will be sales of high-end PCs to the business market. There will be.
What about the 1K processor? Paul, here I disagree with you. I think these are a steal in terms of the technology and capability you are buying for the money and they are perfect for the newbie. I am looking into getting one for my in-laws so they can have email capabilities with their grandchildren and for some fun. Microsoft Works and Internet Explorer is more than they need. They don't need anything more and they never will. What has happened is that there is a brand new market - the technophobe who sort of knows that it might be useful or fun to have a PC around but isn't motivated to spend 2 or 3 big ones for the experiment. Great market - lots of those folks. Undemanding about features and upgradability. Some will upgrade, most won't. So as I see it, the old markets are healthy and growing and the new low-end market is ripe for some Intel innovation to lower the cost still further.
Also, I believe the Asian mess is real but has become a diversion that has mesmerized the investment community, in part because any company with any bad news can now say Asia and get away with it (See Kodak and their explanation that the quarter was weak because of poor sales in that hotbed of snapshot film buying, Malaysia - not the red hot competition from Fuji). I would say that Intel is now a long term screaming buy.
Good investing and a happy holiday season,
Burt
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Message 2465712
From: ratan lal
To: carl a. mehr
Carl
Lets compare notes.
I am using BMI for realtime data. I have Stoch for 1-tikc, 25 ticks, 5-mins, 30 mins and daily.
All the stochs are on a down slope. Oversold - maybe - but will continue to be oversold. Cant use Stoch in a bear market to predict rise.
What chart are you using that show 'screaming buy'?
Ratan
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Message 2465782
From: Bald Man from Mars
To: ratan lal
What chart are you using that show 'screaming buy'?
______________________________________________________________________
The chart may be screaming, but I don't see screaming buy ...
Why is the whole tech sector collapsing ???
Especially with what seems like decent earnings !!!
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Message 3578063
From: Paul Engel
To: Jim Patterson
Jim - Re: "I may change camps after AMD's preformance today.
You would think at this point that it was much adoo about nothing."
Wrong strategy!
With AMD down today (of course, Intel and most everything else is down as well) AMD is a screaming BUY.
They've got the K6!
They've got IBM making the K6!
They've got their yield problems 100% completely solved - in fact their new history indicates AMD never really did have a yield problem. It was all a smoke screen to lull Intel into complacency.
The Dresden fab is way ahead of schedule - what with the great German Work Ethic and the extra finances AMD has thrown into the project!
Compaq and IBM are screaming for parts due to overwhelming demand for K6 PCs - discontinuing ALL THEIR INTEL purchases for future PCs!
The AMD 0.18 micron process development is Way Ahead Of Schedule - GOOD yields have already been obtained according to many reliable Internet sources.
The K7 is almost ready for tape-out and simulations show that it is 33 1/3% faster than the Merced - AMD created their own copy of Merced just to develop that benchmark - shows you what a great engineering design team they have!
Yes, all the signs are there for a massive buy of AMD - the Zodiac has never been more promising!
Paul
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Message 194631
From: Muthusamy SELVARAJU
To: Paul Engel
Paul,
I wondered what your views were on the PA-RISC 8000 architecture that HWP announced recently. How does it compare with the Intel Pentium architecture, and is it going to provide a major boost to HWP's fortunes long-term? How does the Merced architecutre fit into the greater scheme of things for both INTC as well as HWP?
Is HWP a screaming buy (in addition to INTC) at current prices?
Many thanks in advance for your insights.
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Message 4668769
From: JDN
To: Paul Engel
Dear Paul: I am looking to add to my INTC position but not in a particular hurry. At what price do you think INTC would be a screaming buy? Do you think it will reach down to 60? JDN
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Message 8062567
From: Technician
To: Jeff Fox
A few days ago I posted my view on INTC as being locked in a trading range of 130 - 122, with a breakdown towards 100 if interest rates went up.
I now think that we are on our way there, I think in light of the fact that no buyers stepped up today coupled
with a strong probability that the 30 year treasury will
sell off next week in anticipation of strong economic data and the severe technical damage done today we will
get to 105 -110 next week.
I think that INTC would be a screaming buy at 100.
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Message 2465035
From: carl a. mehr
To: williet
Orlando Willie,
RE: Stochastics say a SCREAMING BUY, BUY INTEL, BUY INTEL, BUY INTEL, BUY INTEL, BUY INTEL.
If you see Mr. Stochatics tell him thanks!
humble carl
PS: Why don't you buy more? No more buying power? (laugh)
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Message 1767526
From: BlueCrab
To: -X
Xy -- <<I think we may see somew profit taking first before any addtional gains.>>
Maybe in the first 30 seconds or so <g>. Given the overbought state of the large caps (I mean, GE at a PE of 30? Sheesh...), Intel is a screaming buy, and every portfolio manager has to know that.
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Message 3150514
From: Alex
To: Diamond Jim
Does anyone else think INTC is a screaming buy?
I think the sub $1000 scare is dying down and people are realizing that INTC still owns the market.
I think its a good buy at this price...
Look at the historical pe ...
stockfever.com.
it's slightly high but not high enough not to buy!!
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Message 3150590
From: Diamond Jim
To: Alex
Well, the 3.91 EPS on that chart seems a bit high by most estimates, as for a screaming buy, No, a buy, yes. I'd get a position now and then if it drops buy more, I am long on it and quarter to quarter is only entertaining.
jim
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Message 10479499
From: Paul Engel
To: Process Boy
PB - Re: "Hey Tad, "problems" are meant to be embraced, addressed, and solved. Even "real" ones. "
Clueless Tad rated AMD a STRONG BUY with AMD at $27 late last year or early January.
AMD then reported a Q1 loss of $128.4 million - and AMD sunk to $15 - $18.
This week AMD will embarrass the sh*t out of themselves when they report a $200,000,000 loss for Q2.
Of course, with AMD now at $17 3/8, A "Tad" wrong certainly will have AMD at a SCREAMING BUY !
SCUMbria hopes he can get some suckers to buy his AMD shares !
Paul
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Message 89129
From: Burt Masnick
To: John Hull
John,
The answer to your question is complicated. If INTEL is a
growth company with revenues and particularly earnings
increasing at say 20% a year then INTC is definitely
undervalued. Typically, growth stocks trade at a PE of
at least their
growth rate and sometimes much more than that. However,
for stable industrial firms whose profits grow and shrink
with the economy and their industry, the PE is much lower,
ranging from about 8 to upwards of 16. Intel has shown
signs of both. Flat earnings are usually not the sign of
a growth company. Intel has seen flat earnings, although
revenue and unit shipments have certainly grown.
Having said all that I come down on the side of growth. I
see INTEL earnings around $4.50 this year and up to
$5.25-$5.50 next year. If anything like that occurs, then I
see the street re-recognizing INTC as a growth company and
raising the PE to over 20. Since I therefore feel that the
stock will see a price of over $100 in the next 18 months I
feel that it is a good buy ( I bought more at 57 a few months
back). By the way, I am basing this growth on my predictions
about the popularity of the MMX P5 and P6, the impact of
the about to be released Win NT 4.0 and the success of at least
some of the INTEL initiatives recently announced. All of this
presumes at least a plausible and hopefully growing economy.
Long winded answer to a good question. At 57 a screaming buy.
At 70 a good buy. At 80+ depends on those earnings actually
beginning to occur (at least some healthy signs). By the way,
I originally bought intel in 1983 and have held on all this
time. I tend to be a believer in the management, the products,
the production mastery and the strategic approach. It is by
far my largest single holding.
Burt
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Message 1864415
From: Michael D. Cummings
To: Fred Fahmy
Hi Fred, thanks, how can it be that an average joe blo like me can see all this and these high priced Wall Street wizards have such a tough time?? It never ceases to amaze me.
Be assured I'm always digging for the next bookend. I'll give you a holler if I come up with another screaming buy.
Take Care, Michael
p.s. the profits I've already made on APM will pay for my SI connection for the next 10 years. :-) Now that's cost effectiveness! <gg>
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Message 12512011
From: Jim McMannis
To: Diamond Jim
Jim,
I think the problems at LU are fixable and the demand is there.
A screaming buy in the low 50s save the whole market tanking.
At least they admitted their mistakes...
Jim
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Message 4069055
From: Burt Masnick
To: lanac
lanac - Kurlak's record is spotty. A while back (pre-split) he emphatically downgraded intel when it was 50 then belatedly issued a buy at around 75 (a few weeks later). He was roundly criticized for that sequence of calls by Louis Rukeyser on Wall Street Week, at the time.
This is not an isolated case of error. He has been goofy about Micron too. That doesn't mean that he is right or wrong today (even a stopped watch is correct twice a day). It does mean that he is more than capable of error. I note that he has been somewhat better lately. His problem is that he uses one measure of current shipments very extensively (from article on him in Fortune a while back) which is simply blind to future events. He is also what I call a straight line analyst. He takes the last two data points, draws a straight line and extrapolates. In technical terms he uses the two most recent data points to predict the future. Unfortunately, such crude methods are essentially useless in volatile situations (as when Micron got whomped by Asian memory chip capacity coming on line or the Pentium became REAL popular).
I always listen to what he says and then do my own analysis. In certain stable situations, his methods might be useful, but he has a fairly low batting average on certain stocks (Intel, a highly volatile issue, among them). IF, on the other hand, you are an Intel bear, than anything he says is gospel, destined to be 100% accurate. But you wouldn't be so foolish as to take Kurlak as gospel. If you were, you are poorer than you could have been. (I may be wrong but I think he was poor on AMD too). In baseball it's great when a .350 hitter is at the plate. In investing, it's less thrilling. If Kurlak has a weak reputation among Intel investors he has richly earned it. Not sour grapes, but wrong calls.
By the way I have a damn big profit in Intel (50 times what I paid). I tend to take a long term view. I bought intel shortly after the first IBM PC came out (bought some more at key points along the way when some shrewd investment analysts convinced the market to lower the price to a screaming buy).
Best regards and good investing,
Burt
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Message 1138805
From: Burt Masnick
To: Paul Engel
Paul, I was just reviewing some old posts.
About 15 months ago I posted that either Intel was a crazy
screaming buy ($55) or I was a crazy screaming lunatic.
I put my money where my mouth (keyboard?) was and
bought more Intel at $57. While all the ballots aren't in on
whether I personally am bonkers, it now seems in retrospect
that all my thoughts on Intel were accurate. They were:
1- New Windows NT coming out
2- Corporate upgrade cycle
3- Lack of meaningful competition
4- 3-D chips making spiffy games and apps.
5- Best managed tech company ever
6- Unrecognized manufacturing prowess
While I wasn't smart enough to sell at $165 and rebuy more at
$126, I think that the same arguments still hold. I held my
breath to see what was coming from AMD. Not enough horsepower
to make the big boxmakers desert mother. I am still looking for
$200+ in calender 1997. High beta stocks can give you serious
stomach problems, but when the fundamentals remain sound the
business reasons for Intels continued success remain in place,
the growth picture (and a 20+ pe times NEXT year's earning)
seems reasonable to me.
Thanks a ton for your reporting on the AMD K-6 rollout.
In my view you are exactly right - a clean single but
no home run. While INTC continues to hit doubles, triples and
the occaisional grand slam. It is a testimony to Intel's
technical prowess that it takes an academy award technological
performance just to come up with a me-too chip.
Thanks too for your reporting on RayW. I haven't laughed so
hard in years. Pretty good detective work. I am an amateur genealogist and have to do similar digging into the
written records to determine what really happened. Nice work!
You seem to have single-handedly driven a fair fraction of the
AMD uber alles crowd into stunned silence. There is actually
an Intel thread again!
Thanks again and continued good investing.
Best regards,
Burt
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Message 14442855
From: Dan3
To: Elmer
Re:Try again Dan. AMD hopes to manufacture 3.6 Million K7s in Q3f
AMD is also producing .18 K6-2 and K6-2+ chips that are (barely) maintaining a presence in the notebook market until next quarter.
If you want to exclude .18 chips that use cores from more than a year ago and are now being phased out then exclude coppermine.
So production rates last quarter were AMD 1.8 million and Intel 0. This quarter it will be about 3.5 million to 0 and next quarter about 7 million from AMD and about 200 thousand from Intel.
If you prefer those numbers, it's fine with me.
:-)
Dan
PS - for whatever it's worth, I sold the last of my Intel puts Friday, I wouldn't call Intel a buy at this point, but it's no longer a screaming sell, either. I used the profits to buy AMD calls. At this point I consider AMD to be a screaming buy.
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Message 8242872
From: Paul Fiondella
To: GVTucker
So you say you want to buy INTC today, well today we have a special on AMZN
With rumors thoroughly and utterly exhausted, refuted and brokers afraid to call the customers they told to sell yesterday, hope of hitting 110 is now just a distant memory.
Market makers fought this morning to keep INTC down below 117.
Screaming Buy Internet stocks. Buy Internet stocks. Uh big cap growth stocks are giving way to value stocks. Buy value stocks. Buy oil stocks. Bob Pissoni has Schlumberger. Japan is turning around. Here I have an old tire --- buy that. Here we have finally added the Internet stocks to our research list. Buy AMZN. Buy YHoo. Buy AOL. Buy yesterday's cold pizza. You want to buy INTC!!!! Please don't buy INTC. Please Trust me. Look call me back later. Please....
As they continued to check their inventory of INTC.....
=====================
A technical sell is like a virtual sell. It belongs to the species hypocriter greedus. It has only been spotted in rare circumstances at Goldman Sachs usually in the context of telling the sucker anything he is willing to believe. Sometimes when someone hits the bottle at lunch it can be spotted along with the pink elephants amongst the old coffee cups inverting charts and proclaiming resistance has been broken just before wallowing off to the men's room.
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Message 13401812
From: Jim McMannis
To: John Fowler
Man, this thread is really dead...I see some Intel faithful even posting on the AMD thread for something to do...
This probably means Intel is a screaming buy...
Jim
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Message 13402583
From: Barry Grossman
To: Jim McMannis
Jim,
This probably means Intel is a screaming buy...
I agree.
Barry
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Message 966944
From: Rod Macpherson
To: Joan Graffius
There were some downgrades based on price when it was closing in on $170 but that was based on price and probably had more to do with the desire to get back in at lower levels. There have only been screaming buys since then. Merrill is definitely calling for $200 and I think they will hit that target with ease.
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Message 203880
From: Andy Chen
To: Paul Engel
no...
50-55 price target is based on my fundamental analysis.
and 90-100/share is based on purely technical analysis. just reading
the charts.
if INTC fall to 50-55 level. i will be SCREAMING BUY!
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Message 1984376
From: Gary J. Goetz
To: SPEEDRACER
Speedracer, I'm impressed with your rationale and conviction. Some comments:
1. Inflation seems to be dead with globabilization of world economies and productivity gains. Growth continues......an environment which can support high prices.
2. Mr nervousness, Marty Zweig, who called the '87 crash, is positive short term and neutral mid-term. I value his opinion and think we bounce soon.
3. I expect some followup on downside on Monday AM as result of mutual fund redemptions late Friday - could set the stage for bounce.
4. Greenspan is sensitive to market downside and will act to instill liquidity in the event of decline - he's done it before.
5. As someone looking to increase portfolio value by a factor of 5 - 10 over the next 10 years, I've found it best to view events like this as buying opportunity , ie to add intel on dips - in the high 80's its a screaming buy for long term holders like myself. I think 10 years from now intel will be over $600/share. I have a regular job and do not have time to trade for living.
So I congratulate you on your predictions to date, agree with you that it is wise to avoid DOW stocks, disagree with you on large drop and view further weakness in intel as buying opportunity.
Gary
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Message 775159
From: missing
To: Fallope
Dont knock Gruntal. Joe Batapaglia was one of the early advocates of
INTC and also had IBM at a "screaming buy " at around 90.
Overall, they have made some great calls. Are they premature on this one?
I dont know. Lets wait and see.
I owned INTC few years ago and am looking for a good spot to get in at.
PS As far as Prudential is concerned, they are bunch of crooks and have
almost no credibility. They are still trying to pay all the penalties imposed on them
for illegal/unethical business practices.
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Message 4671837
From: Paul Engel
To: JDN
JDN - re: "At what price do you think INTC would be a screaming buy? Do you think it will reach down to 60? "
I don't generally make stock price predictions and almost never predict short term valuations.
If you like the company, I assume you expect the stock to go a lot higher at some point in the future.
Considering that, the difference between buying at $68 or $65 or $60 is not very significant if your strategy is to invest for the long term.
Paul
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Message 8064745
From: Paul Engel
To: Technician
Technician - Re: " I think that INTC would be a screaming buy at 100. "
Such a genius you are !
Why weren't you over here when Intel was trading at $70 3 or 4 months ago telling us idiots what a screaming BUY it was then?
Paul
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Message 2180120
From: Defrocked
To: Tony Viola
<INTC is just going to have to exceed expectations for 3Q. In the bag? I think so.>
This market, read Nasdaq Techs, is a screaming buy. The compelling value of INTC over MOT is unbelievable. I also think INTC earnings release will provide upside catalyst for big caps in this sector.
I would also not go home short this market this weekend. We have not
seen the end of lower rates or of a stronger dollar. If overseas
weakness continues, the dollar will be a haven, not ECU currencies or
the Yen or gold. Inflation remains tame, growth moderate and expectations have been realigned in equities.
The press coverage of recent trading activity has been very negative
lately and many non-professionals have been selling or shorting. These
are positive developments.
For those wringing their hands over recent trading activity, walk
away from your terminal, go outside and notice that the fundamentals
for further PC sales and a moderate economic climate have not changed.
Just my 2 cents.
Good investing all. |
