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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 235.24

+4.5%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (45819)	4/24/2001 12:37:10 AM
From: brunn	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Bill McClean (using revenue growth numbers, not BtB) has suggested that the area under (integral of) the up-cycle part of the curve is roughly equal to the area under the down-cycle part of the curve. If this is true, one must take into account just how big of a bubble was created a year ago with Book to Bills running at record-making levels of 1.3-1.4 and higher for months. There was a lot of area built under that curve. Although I see your point that possibly one month of very bad news may be like getting through several months of fairly bad news one has to consider that under Bill McClean's thesis we're balancing this very bad news against a string of months of very good news.

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