PB - Yes we are singing the same tune (I think please verify after reading this).
In fact, I think you, zeev, and I are singing the same tune with subtle variations.
I do not mind that company at all. ggg
Now, how to profit from it. Fortunately my PUTs were all May puts and although they are still underwater (for the most part), quite a few recovered considerably today, some are even up (not enough of them).
Since Zeev, Greg, and I (not sure about you) think that 1850 or so will hold on the Naz (for THIS retest) I have to think we either do not get there or we spike through it. Therefore I am reluctant to add too many PUTs right now.
If we do bounce off 1850 as Zeev suggests then the key, and Greg is right about this, is what happens on the retest of 2200. I am inclined to think it will fail and if it does hopefully I will be in a position to go nuclear short again, for the retest of the lows at 1700 or whatever.
At that point I think all 4 of us are in agreement: Off to the races sometime this Autumn as inventory is worked off, earning improve and everyone goes totally insane nuts buying stocks. Rally to 2850 (A much lower target than Zeev's). Then we see that this was nothing more than the next cyclical round of ordering PCs etc which slows or stalls once again (in 1st or 2nd q 2002) and interest rates rise and the big Recession hits.
That is the approximate scenario I see with much help from Zeev but much lower expectations on the high side, and an earlier start date to the demise in 2002.
Finally, given the right circumstances I think it is possible a recession hits this year, in which case all bets are off. What would some of the keys be:
Mammoth energy price increases, housing dies right now, major bankruptcies hit, layoff accellerate, and the next rate cut is sold not bought.
This is possible but I do not think that is likely.
M |
