John, et al, I saw J. Osha and J. Joseph on CNBC. Osha is as negative as usual, but in closing, he said that when semis do rebound, it will be because of non-PC markets first. He mentioned cell phones, access, and infrastructure. I hate to tell him, but Intel is already big in, or is building up a lot of capability in all three of those. No guarantees that they'll become a major player in cell phones, but they're working on it. Access, with their Strongarms and Xscales, DSL and DSP products, especially the first two, is a stronghold. In infrastructure, with Xeon and upcoming Itanium, Intel is by far the biggest chip manufacturer represented. I wish Mark Haines had had the time or wherewithal to ask Josha who he thought would lead that comeback.
Joseph was more of the "since they're hitting such an ugly bottom, things will look much better when the rebound happens." Some numbers, he said he has semis down 22% or so in 2001, so, when they get back to even single digit growth again, that will make for good comparisons. He mentioned the three bottoms and a funeral again (funeral being his if he's wrong). He said he's not being extreme about the whole thing in that he doesn't have a $100 target on Intel, rather, $40 or $45. 2 weeks ago he said $40.
Tony |
