Your list looks like a typical US based gold bull portfolio: nothing but US listed names and too many South Africans. It's not that you won't make money in a rally, but IMO it doesn't offer the best leverage for the risk. In my view many large cap golds are just overpriced considering their condition and approach (liquidating capital). I would therefore echo Ike's sentiment about the Canucks. That's where the extraordinary value is and they will be hard to buy in a gold bull market. There is also "event reward" in these stocks as I predict some will be bought at huge premiums to where they are today.
To the two names Ike mentioned I'd add a couple small and mid cap producers/explorers that have good models: Iamgold, El Dorado, and Geomaque (a combined gold/PGM play). My favored large cap is Franco Nevada. Then go with some companies that have established deposits (nominally valued by the market) that will pop up on the radar screen quickly on a price rally: Gold Reserve (has US listing), Minefinders, and Metallica, and perhaps Moydow. Finally for spice are some emerging exploration efforts that are incomplete canvases: Birim, Cumberland, Great Basin, Tan Range, Freewest and Tenke. For those who just want one explorer that has some project and metal diversification Southwestern Gold has gotten ridiculously cheap. Also closed end fund Dundee Precious Metals.
The PGM plays everybody was so hyped up about last year are on the backburner despite the fact that progress is being made. It is an ideal time to revisit those names: Annoraq (in South Africa's Platreef), Solitario, and Pacific Northwest Capital standout.
TVX: I've been murdered in this stock, but still like it as a very interesting speculation. Just be prepared to lose the whole investment to play for a five to ten bagger. I owned Silver Standard and just switched out to add more Corner Bay. It's a potentially rewarding stock however. |
