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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: John Pitera who wrote (97821)4/25/2001 10:05:33 AM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
well, not really...the report BEFORE the last showed a huge increase in the comm. mini spoo and NDX short exposure. the last one's changes were too small to read anything of consequence into them. however, i still expect the comms to be net long approx. 40K big spoos at the low, so there's still quite a bit of covering and buying they have to do before we get there.

regarding the currencies, there are so many permutations in currency positioning that i'm not sure how meaningful the report is w.r.t. currencies. the notional amount of the CME's outstanding currency contracts pales vs. the total amount of currency trading around the globe, and it is conceivable with the huge amounts of dollar investments made by European entities over recent years that a lot of hedging of dollar denominated loans is going on. of course that doesn't change the fact that speculators are net long the Euro, which is NOT a good sign normally.

there is though the contradiction that the comms, while short the Euro, are as you say long the AUD and the Swiss Franc and gold as well . all three tend to correlate with the Euro, especially the Swiss Franc. that's the main reason why i'm not losing any sleep over their Euro short. note, i have also heard by way of rumor that a large part of the Euro net short is in fact a speculative position masquerading as a hedge.
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