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Technology Stocks : Cascade Communications (CSCC)

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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (3691)	6/11/1997 11:01:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit	of 3743

Glenn, who rates the raters? I've been watching these analysts for some time, and find their estimates little better than chartists. The longer I'm in the market, the more amazed I am at the power these people have to drive stock prices up or down based on their latest estimate. It seems to me that the best we can do with our prognostications is try to predict how rapidly an industry is growing, and how likely it is that any particular company within that industry will outperform or underperform the industry average. New products are developed and come to market at almost bewildering speed, so how is it possible for anyone to predict growth of a particular player when the products that will be marketed a couple of years from now may not have been thought of yet? Academic studies have repeatedly shown that using naive autoregression models of future revenue and earnings are about as reliable as the analysts' projections. Don't mind me too much. I guess I just have to periodically blow off some steam when I read these estimates! Regards, Paul

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