one other thing about May 2: my fibo counts cluster AROUND it, i.e., they don't all hit it exactly. the Bradley turn does.
now, in the meantime, the date has acquired some notoriety, since other methodologies also point to it. it has become a watched kettle in a way, so it's possible that it will closely miss the actual turn, perhaps by a day or two. similar to what happened with April 19 and April 23: the actual turn of an aggregate of the three main big cap indices (Dow/SPX/NDX) occurred on April 20's open, sandwiched between the two 'watched' dates.
in any case, my plan is to short any meandering higher into the date. should it produce a low instead of a secondary high, i'd wait to see if we turn up from there and try to bite the middle out of the ensuing move.
in the meantime, May 15, the Fed meeting day, is exactly a fibo 13 CDs from the May 2 date, so it should be a meaningful date as well. normally one would expect it to be a high, as the market has a tendency of rising into FOMC meetings. but perhaps this expectation is also too widespread by now, and we will see exactly the opposite happening. sort of like the unenjoyment report: for three years it was almost a guarantee for a melt-up...but that has clearly changed a few months ago. |
