Mega Trend 3: IP here, IP there, IP everywhere
If Wintel was the standard bearer of the aging PC paradigm, then Internet Protocol (IP) has taken on that role for the next wave of smart connected devices. There is nothing that mandates any particular protocol, or technology, for connecting devices in the new age, but gradually IP is becoming the de facto standard for connectivity.
TCP/IP connectivity was as natural as the C language with all Unix operating systems, whatever the flavor. But when enterprise LANs first emerged in the 1980’s, some company’s rushed their own proprietary protocols to market, often with tremendous success. As late as a high dozen years ago, Novell’s IPX accounted for about 65% of corporate LAN connectivity, giving Novell the muscle to issue a challenge to Microsoft for dominance of the corporate desktop. Microsoft easily squashed this futile challenge by providing out-of-the-box TCP/IP connectivity similar to Unix servers. All proprietary network protocols for LANs, including IBM's token ring architecture, had nowhere to go but down.
The backbone of telephony of course had nothing but disdain for IP, for it lacked just about every QoS feature they require. ATM made headway with telecoms with its superior QoS features and speed. With growing requirements for multi-media and guaranteed delivery times along with higher bandwidth, just a few short years ago ATM seemed like a sure bet to spread to the enterprise.
It didn’t happen. Instead, Ethernet with IP evolved to provide better QoS capabilities that previously had opened the door for other connection methods. Switched LANs, VPNs and even an update to the IP standard all served to keep would-be contenders at bay. LAN speed jumped ten fold to “Fast Ethernet”, which alone solved many problems without having to re-architect LANs with expensive ATM connectors and switches. Not only is Gigabit Ethernet now available – with relatively cheap connectors – but 10 Gigabit is known to be waiting around the corner. Today, I can’t imagine any company forsaking IP for an expensive LAN alternative. It is particularly hard to imagine that happening when you take into account that IP stretches beyond the enterprise to Metropolitan Area Networks (MANs) and Wide Area Networks (WANs). In fact, IP is almost certain in time to displace ATM in the backbone, rather than the other way around.
Meanwhile, server architecture is revolutionizing from being standalone devices, connected to a LAN on the front-end and SCSI devices on the back-end, to being distributed on the back-end just like the front-end. Due to the performance requirements of the back-end connections, Storage Area Networks (SANs) sprang into existence to fill the vacuum. Fiber Channel, possibly to be replaced by Infiniband, bring much higher, reliable bandwidth to the back-end than what 10/100 Ethernet with IP can offer the new distributed server architecture. Of course, Fiber Channel struggles to maintain interoperability across vendors; it is expensive and requires different management tools than what has emerged over time in thousands of installations taming IP. So it is no surprise that Network Attached Storage (NAS) and Network Attached Devices (NAD) began to disrupt SANs from the low-end. In response, Fiber Channel is beginning to tunnel IP and, as we recall, Infiniband incorporated IP when Future Bus and NGIO merged to form Infiniband – the cost of getting Cisco to participate.
In other words, all network connectivity around the corporate and telecom, front-end and back-end, are gravitating toward IP.
For decades, the back office and the factory floor have been wired for centralized control. Honeywell was a hallmark of office, factory and aviation proprietary security and control systems. At least in the office and the factory floor, IP is beginning rapidly to replace proprietary technology for connectivity.
Attempts to wire the home with a universal but simple protocol never seem to stop, and yet never succeed. Unlike the office with complex, expensive devices, the notion of every smart connected device in the home containing a TCP/IP protocol stack has always been impractical. When the National Association of Home Builders funded Smart House in the early 1990s to solve this problem, most consumer product companies signed on to the proprietary design, encompassing special wiring, sockets, compatible “smart” appliances and a centralized computer of sorts connected by a phone line to customer support. Today, I doubt if one person in 100 ever heard of Smart House, much less remembers what it was.
More recently, Echelon developed a relatively simple networking protocol, all the device attachments, and received ample VC support and acclaim. While Echelon’s design is vastly superior to Smart House, the chances that Echelon’s networking protocol will set the standard for the home is slim to none. Why? Because the absurd is happening; IP is penetrating the home, through the PC, set-top boxes, access points and home gateways. Once in, you will be amazed at how insignificant a device will still justify running a TCP/IP stack, especially now that there are “tiny” TCP/IP protocol stacks. IP phone, web tablets, security sensors, digital photo-frames, TVs and radios everywhere, and the like all want and will get access via IP. There finally is a network standard in the making for the home, wired and wireless, and that standard is IP.
Okay, the home really isn’t different, but without doubt the car is. The reason is networks must have life-or-death reliability in the car. The network for connecting the engine ECN to the brake ECN is not IP, and will not be IP. Other, ruggedized protocols like CAN are used for engine controls. Certainly this will be the case for the foreseeable future, but nevertheless IP is penetrating the automobile. The comfort side of the auto network is beginning to have Internet connectivity, navigational aid and services, TV and radio. If history is any guide, IP’s penetration in the passenger compartment spells doom for competing network standards.
Proprietary networking protocols require relatively expensive components, have limited management software and form niche markets dominated by entrenched players. In fact, they represent ideal places for niche players to hide from major players. As a rule, anything connected with IP will be easier and cheaper to build than with any other protocol, simply because of the simplicity of gateway-less access and the maturity and ubiquity of IP-based networks. As the world’s leading provider of software foundation and development tools that connect smart devices, WIND is the major player in IP connectivity suites. As IP increases its penetration in most aspects of connectivity, network effects will propel WIND forward faster than ever.
At the Analyst Day presentation, the point was made concretely that IP winds were blowing in WIND’s favor in the factory. It was hard to miss the implications for the passenger compartment in the automobile. It went without saying for consumer products, with its increased emphasis on personal Java and connectivity. But where it really stood out is how the server is being revolutionized with IP connecting all the parts, front and back. The notion that WIND is on the threshold of a serious NAS and server appliance play is staggering.
We have always said the world is becoming more and more connected, a symbiotic aspect of the next wave of ubiquitous computing. What we never emphasized before, and what is so important for WIND and the speed at which the world connects, is the central role IP is playing in forming most of the connections.
Allen |
