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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Shack who started this subject	4/25/2001 7:53:07 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (3) of 209892

My contribution and thoughts to EW... I'll be using the S&P as a model. The current decline from the 1254 highs appears corrective in structure. The decline from 1254 to 1207 has unfolded in 5 waves: wave 1 from 1254 to 1235 wave 2 from 1235 to 1243 (1246 was a higher high as the "a" wave, while "b" only went to 1243) wave 3 from 1243 to 1217 wave 4 from 1217 to 1234 wave 5 from 1234 to 1207 In this series wave 2 was a flat and wave 4 was a sharp (zigzag) thus you have fulfillment of the rule of alternation. Also, the highs for wave 4 (1234) did not overlap the lows for wave 1 (1235) which is a must. The rise from the 1207 bottom has thus far taken the shape of 3 waves. wave a from 1207 to 1220 wave b from 1220 to 1213 wave c from 1213 to 1234 Wave a was 13 points in length. Wave c was 21 points in length which is a perfect 1.618 extension of wave a. This corrective wave also did not pass above the wave 1 lows from the prior series at 1235. Thus, based on the above, I think the rise that started in late afternoon is over. In order to fulfill this, 1235 must not be surpassed tomorrow morning. If all this is true, then the entire corrective series could be taking the shape of a 5-3-5 sharp (or zigzag) from the 1254 high with 5 waves down from 1254 to 1207 and then 3 waves up from 1207 to 1234 having been completed (wave A and B). This leaves wave C next which could be equal in length to wave A... 47 points for a target of 1234 - 47 =1187 Or a 1.618 extension of wave A.... 76 points for a target of 1234 - 76 = 1158. The first scenario fills the gap in the low 1190's yet stays just above the 1185 support level. The second I think will be too low as it goes below the late March high near 1184. Thus, I think the first is more likely. Since, the structure is appearing to take the form of a 5-3-5 zigzag, I think that once we complete, we push off to test 1154 again. The following is my chart for reference. raptorgroupresearch.com

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