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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 344.71-1.1%Jan 23 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (470)4/25/2001 8:08:20 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (1) of 95761
 
This is an update of Post #410 showing the "positive and
negative" cycles in Backlog since Jan 1995. This is the
4th month of "falling" backlog. If the cycle matches the
one in 1996, there are 3 more months of falling backlog
prior to returning to the plus side. In terms of sheer
magnitude in backlog reduction, the present 4 months is
greater than the full 7 months in 1996.

Monthly Backlog Numbers($M)
Jan 95 May 96 Dec 96 Dec 97 Jan 99 Dec 00
to to to to to to
Months Apr 96 Nov 96 Nov 97 Dec 98 Nov 00 Feb 01
1 215 -179 9 -9 107 -17
2 290 -179 82 -95 184 -454
3 259 -319 72 -136 313 -608
4 220 -366 163 -247 306 -733
5 115 -341 125 -314 298
6 178 -239 122 -254 272
7 80 -110 99 -333 156
8 48 183 -394 124
9 19 152 -440 98
10 74 102 -364 125
11 72 42 -214 166
12 194 1 -164 310
13 350 -38 624
14 444 707
15 191 802
16 7 724
17 621
18 599
19 529
20 553
21 412
22 419
23 285
Total 2755 -1733 1152 -3003 8732 -1813
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