US rethinks Sudan policy - New Straits Times (Malaysia), April 20
BY K.P. WARAN
ESTABLISHED in 1962, the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies is a private institution focusing on international policy issues which seeks to inform and shape selected policy decisions in government and the private sector to meet the increasingly complex and difficult global challenges that leaders will confront in the next century.
In a recent report titled "US Policy to end Sudan's War" it has proposed that the new George W. Bush administration, in league with other countries, make a strong push to end the civil war in the African nation.
The report by the CSIS Task Force on US-Sudan policy co-chaired by Francis M. Deng, distinguished professor at the City University of New York and J. Stephen Morrison, director of CSIS Africa programme, has called for early consultations with countries whose oil corporations are engaged in Sudan including those from Malaysia, Canada and China.
With Petronas expertise, Sudan has emerged as an oil power with the capacity to produce 210,000 barrels per day. Petronas invested about US$800 million (RM3.04 billion) in its Sudan project, its single largest overseas investment to date.
Even today, Sudan's oil and gas sector is only 15 per cent exploited.
The discovery of new oil fields has raised expectation that the industry will help turn around the Sudanese economy.
Last month, a consortium involving Petronas struck oil at a new concession site designated "Block 5A" onshore that flows at more than 4,000 barrels per day. Petronas partners in the consortium are OMV (Sudan), Exploration GmbH of Austria, Lundin Oil AB of Sweden and Sudan's own Sudapet Ltd.
Malaysia's assistance to Sudan when Western nations shunned it for allegedly "advocating terrorism" has re-cast Khartoum's image for the better. By advocating policies such as "prosper thy neighbour" and by encouraging south-south co-operation, Malaysia is being seen more and more in the international arena as a model.
Several other Malaysian firms have business ventures in Sudan including Advance Synergy Berhad, which operates the Grand Holiday Villa Hotel in Khartoum; Dectra Sdn Bhd, which has successfully completed the automation of oilfield surface facilities in the Muglad Basin and Velosi (M) Sdn Bhd, which has a contract for third-party inspection of equipment.
Recently Ranhill Bhd's wholly-owned subsidiary, Ranhill Civil Sdn Bhd, received a Letter of Intent for a road construction contract worth RM12 million.
The CSIS report said Sudan matters to US interests because it straddles a fault line between Africa and the Middle East that requires Washington to balance a delicate and competing foreign policy interest.
"Egypt has had an historical engagement in Sudan and on-going concerns about Islamic fundamentalism and the Nile waters that merit special consideration. Sudan can provide either a constructive link between Africa and the Middle East or a point of confrontation that has destabilising consequences for both regions.
"Prospectively, Sudan matters because of what it could become, should it achieve a just and lasting peace. It has demonstrated in the past its ability to contribute to regional peace, prosperity, democratic process, open debate and stability.
"In the future, as Sudan becomes a medium-scale oil exporter, oil could shift from fuelling conflict to revitalising Sudan and building energy- market integration in the Horn of Africa. Eventually, Sudan might provide to the US an additional source of energy supply," the report added.
Recent interviews with the Sudanese leadership and the business sector indicate that for many Sudanese, the ruins of a Khartoum medicine factory flattened by US cruise missiles provide an image that sums up Washington's legacy to their country.
The destruction of the Shifa pharmaceutical plant on Aug 20, 1998 followed the bombings earlier that month of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania that Washington blamed on Saudi-born Osama bin Laden, who was once based in Sudan. The US said the factory was making poison gas ingredients and had links with Osama, but provided no evidence in public for either of its charges and also rejected Khartoum's demand for an international investigation.
Sudan's relations with the West took a turn for the worse when Hassan al-Turabi, said to be the guiding force behind the Government installed after Omar Hassan al-Bashir's 1989 military coup began opening the nation's doors to rebels.
Hassan, then Parliament Speaker and secretary-general of the ruling National Congress party, forged close relations with Iran and pursued the war against rebels resentful of northern rule and Khartoum's efforts to impose Islamic law on the black African, non-Muslim south.
However in December 1999, Bashir removed him and Sudan was able to improve its relations with the outside world.
Minister of Industry and Investment, Dr Abdul Halim Ismail al-Mutaafi, who was in Malaysia recently said said that the drop in overseas aid forced the Sudanese Government to adopt a free market policy. The economy moved away from subsidies and support for agriculture and services.
"People were encouraged to work hard and there was a concerted effort to maximise exports in order to raise the hard currency needed to pay for imports. The recent price rise of oil provided a useful boost to a previously struggling industry.
"Oil has proven to be a magnet for foreign investment, particularly from the Far East. China has long held an interest in Sudan, but an intercontinental partnership has also emerged with Malaysia," he said.
Reports indicate that since its last December elections, interest in Sudan has renewed. Bashir received 7,057,273 votes (86.5 per cent of votes cast) to win another five-year mandate as President. He received 10 per cent more votes than in the 1996 election.
The contest for the 360 parliamentary seats saw the ruling National Conference Party of the president sweeping 278 seats. The National Salvation Front won 10 constituencies, Independents won eight while the Muslim Brotherhood Party won two.
The CSIS report said the Bush administration should establish a new international nucleus dedicated to ending Sudan's war and discreet consultations should begin immediately to identify select members of a nucleus that draw among others, the United Kingdom, Norway and Sudan's neighbours.
"The negotiations will need to elaborate and bring into force carrots and sticks that effectively influence both Khartoum and the southern opposition.
"To Khartoum, it will be critical to elaborate the argument that a negotiated, honourable settlement would permit resources now consumed for military purposes to be put towards domestic, social and developmental ends.
"To the opposition, it will be critical to elaborate an argument that more can be gained now, versus later, in terms of political and economic interests," the report said.
The report called for the pursuit of early confidence-building measures for example ceasefires, troop pullbacks, actions to rein in militias and public statements that affirm common principles of governance in both north and south.
It also proposed clarification of the north-south boundary, definition of a revenue sharing formula for oil, mineral wealth and water rights, definition of powers for self-governing north and south and international guarantees such as peacekeepers, military and civilian observers, human rights monitors and consulates.
In the event that Washington accepts these proposals and agrees to a role in bringing the conflict in Sudan to an end and also help develop its economy, the future of Khartoum and Malaysian investments there look very bright. |
