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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (97962)	4/25/2001 9:57:25 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) of 436258

I see that May NG which is going off the boards tomorrow and June NG closed just below 5.00, but the summer months are still up north of 5.00...some near term build occurring.... Natural Gas Market Commentary Kyle Cooper, Houston Wednesday, April 25, 2001 Summary Natural gas again ended broadly lower after the AGA report. The May contract ended 97 ticks lower at 4981. The 12-month strip also dropped and ended at 5151, down 110 ticks. We will look to reestablish some sort of near-term short position again. May natural gas will expire tomorrow. Cash prices were also broadly lower as moderate temperatures are prevalent. Cash prices in Southern California points were again higher. One item to note from the operational side is reports of high line pack in various pipelines. This problem occurs as more molecules are pushed into the pipeline than are removed. As mentioned many times, the natural gas system is basically a closed system. Any gas that enters the system through production or imports is either consumed or placed into storage. The pipelines act as storage. If more molecules enter the pipeline than leave, pressures begin to rise. The opposite is also true. The pipelines have safety limits for operating pressures and when these are approached, operational flow orders (OFO) are called to force the pressures back within limits. These high pressures indicate more supply than demand. The AGA reported a build of 43 bcf for the week ending April 20. This compares to a build of 19 bcf last year, a three-year average build of 26 bcf and a five-year average build of 20 bcf. The industry average called for a build of 34 bcf. This trims the yearly storage deficit to 279 bcf. When compared to the historical regression, this still indicates llostm demand of just over 4 bcf/d. When compared to last year, it indicates a shift in the supply/demand balance of about 6-7 bcf/d. This continues to reinforce a near-term-downward bias. AGA WEEKLY STORAGE REPORT

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