Yo Gottfried! Yes, that's good news, if/when it comes true. I'm seeing some small increases in confidence here locally (Austin), but some big issues still must be worked through. For instance, rumors abound here that Motorola will close MOS-11 (one of two big fabs here) for the summer, and is looking for a buyer of that facility. Tied to local layoffs (firings) of Motorola employees, and the recent news out of Scotland concerning Motorola, this does not bode well for one of Austin's premier employers. The worst is not yet behind us, if maybe that's true elsewhere in the world.
AMAT's voluntary separation program (VSP) has about run its course, and I expect to hear final numbers of how many penguins will leave the float on their own steam any day now. If those numbers aren't high enough for AMAT's management, then I'm sure we'll see penguin-pushing become the sport of the summer. <sigh>
Keep in mind, if TMC and USMC (together these two represent the 2nd largest market for semiconductor tools in 2000) undergo a wild run to the upside, they still won't be able to react with capital spending this calendar year in any meaningful quantity. Which means next year for delivery of any such tools.
I personally don't look for great happenings from AMAT until FQ2 of '02, if then. And the Axcelis suit may cause even more problems before that....
Regards,
Mitch (peeking out of bunker in Austin) |
