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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Mining Stocks
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To: russwinter who wrote (848)4/26/2001 1:54:14 PM
From: goldsheet  Read Replies (1) of 4051
 
<< A 35 per cent reduction in supply represents a decline in actual gold supply of 900 tonnes. Similarly, South African gold production is also likely to fall by some 29 per cent or some 120 tonnes of gold.>>

I have seen this article several times and still can not figure out the math. A 29% decline in RSA, probably the most expensive region in the world, contributing to a 35% worldwide decline ? The other majors (US/AUS/Canada/China) may drop 10%, and we might have some increased production elsewhere (Chile,Peru,Tanzania,Russia) but that may get us to an average 10-15% worldwide decline. I can not see worldwide production declining more than the worst decline in the world (RSA) - averages don't work that way.

We did not get a decline in 2000, and so far in the first quarter of 2001 the production drops are still not coming. For the last few years my production predictions have been better than the "experts" I was one of the few who expected a new production record in 1999, and in hindsight wish that I did not moderate my 2000 prediction to 2500mt (down 2.5%) when the quarterly data I kept compiling showed the major were actually up and production was likely to be close to flat (ended up 2573mt vs. 2569mt)
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