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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: Paul Shread who wrote (6398)4/26/2001 6:57:27 PM
From: Gersh Avery  Read Replies (2) of 52237
 
Ahhh!! I see what you are talking about re broken uptrend lines.

I just updated my chart for the morning.

homestead.com

Note that I have an ascending fork based, in part, on the 4/4 bottom. You use that starting point and one or two touch points to form a line .. so that line is broken. My fork is not broken, yet ..

I am expecting this rising fork to fail quickly. It moves up to fast and has a channel that is to narrow.

The descending fork is good. That is, the rate of fall is less than the last good wide fork that just died.

If we were to hit the lower tine on this descending fork and bounce up from there:

We would have a very nice double bottom ~1100 SPX.
This new bottom point would allow the building of a sound stable ascending fork. This new fork would have a rate of rise of ~1.5 points per day .. reasonable. The width of this new fork would be ~150 points wide .. stable.

In other words:

The ascending fork that I show tends to be a bear market rally kind of fork. Almost parabolic.

The fork that would form if we return to the ~1100 mark and bounce would tend to be a stable fork .. more like a bull market fork.

So where to form here?

I vote for a trip to ~1100 SPX cash.
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