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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam

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To: DaYooper who wrote (13167)	4/27/2001 1:01:11 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) of 13572

Rory, what I want to see is a low volume retest of the April bottom. That bottom did not have a good "feel" to it IMHO. I am of the firm conviction that someone big was in trouble, Janus perhaps, with fund outflows or some other such thing and Greenspan bailed them out. I can say I did get too caught up in the bear thing and there were bargains out there. Unfortunately I do not see bargains right now. CIEN is a walking disaster waiting to happen for example. I also do not like it when total garbage rises over 100%. Earnings not mattering one iota. Now, bop might speculate that buying in the face of poor earnings is a sign of the bottom, but I do not buy it. I look back and see day after day after day of fed coupons pouring money into the economy. It is clear to me where it went in retrospect. The stock market - to prop it up. The signs were there. Now look at JDSU down from 27, CIEN down from 70, etc ect. Again some might say a healthy pullback, but these pullbacks look more than healthy to me. If those companies with good earnings stayed high and crap got trashed then perhaps there would be something to this, but that is not what I see. I see an options manipulations runup and the funds are unloading the shares to the masses. Today was classic IMHO. They propped up INTC and MSFT and hammered the crap out of JNPR etc, while it looks like the Naz only fell 24 points. Short term, I expect a retest of 2200 after a smaller pullback here. I also expect that retest to fail HUGE. This autumn, after inventory is worked off we should see the light at the end of the tunnel. As for the DOW. I sure am perplexed. I never thought we would get back to this level again. How high can it get? I think the DOW is insane. What I will be watching for is the positions on the Commercial Traders. Many got stopped out on the S&P puts that were hugely in the money. If The COTs go hugely short again, we are going down and down hard. If they go long but stay short on the Naz then we can see the Naz get hammered and and the DOW to do OK. Best guess is the Naz needs to retest the low but the DOW will eventually break through its low. Right now we are in between. I am not a very good trader so cash is best for me now. M

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