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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup
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To: DebtBomb who wrote (18935)4/27/2001 9:01:53 AM
From: Softechie  Read Replies (1) of 37746
 
Briefing.com is skeptical about this GDP 2% number.

Opening Indications : S&P futures +12, or 13 pts above fair value; Nasdaq 100 pre-market indicator +26. Stronger than expected GDP report has moved the futures sharply higher as market hopes that this is a harbinger of stronger growth (and profits) ahead. Unclear whether this will positive sentiment will endure, as Q1 is long over and this GDP report says little about future growth.

Economic Report : Note that preliminary GDP figures are based partly on estimates and subject to revision. The fact that business investment was reported +1.1% certainly makes us very skeptical about this number. The tendency in past downturns is for the economic readings early in the process to overstate growth as they incorporate past (more optimistic) assumptions; wouldn't be surprised to see the same again here.

Economic Report : Q1 GDP rose 2.0%, much stronger than expectations. Could reduce the odds of another Fed easing, but would note that the market might also be skeptical of this number, as preliminary GDP reports are subject to substantial revision. Seeing initial positive reaction to the report, though the market has trouble deciding whether stronger growth is good (higher profits) or bad (lower chance of Fed easing).
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