WHEN OPEC cuts OIL prices by increasing production, EUROPEAN central banks will lower their interest rates, and not vice versa no matter what Greenspan does. The GDP up 2% is good for now, but as the European Currency stays in inflation mode, waiting for OPEC imho, this means that OPEC will only go first, if the US goes first, and that means that Greenspan must cut FOMC federal reserve interest rates across the board 50 to 75 basis points by or before May 20th. Then OPEC can move, or will move. Otherwise the US could see $5 per gallon gasoline, as surely as we already have $2 per gallon in the West, East, and Milwaukee Chicago EPA additive zone, all going to $3 for sure this summer FAST. You want to see a revolution in the USA, just wait until California natural gas doubles in the North (servicing San Francisco and silicon valley) and TRIPLES in the south for Los Angeles and San Diego and the industries affected there, since California is supplied by only those TWO (yes just 2) natural gas pipelines, which is the fuel of choise for generators of electricity. Regulation will return to the Utility sector fast. (Stocks and Bonds in Utilities and their suppliers in the US will drop, inlcuding eventually XOM, Chevron, Kerr McGee etc etc, (less so British Dutch Petoleum BP and SHELL for the above European reasons). When this hits, if regulation does not correct the supply and distribution (NOT PRICE) problem, we will have shortages like never seen, black outs interrupted only by rolling permanent brown out dialed up hostages. The GDP is up 2%, but the story is not over. Greenspan must cuts FOMC rates, so OPEC will increase production, and then hopefully the USA will finally get a rationale Energy Policy and OIL RESERVES and start up new refineries. By the way, any one want to start up a refinery with me....that is where the profits will be.
I am,
Truly your$,
-Crystal Ball |
