There is also a tendency for polls to lose accuracy the more they become prominent in the news, and the more situations you have like 2000, where they are universally condemned as inaccurate. I think there are a lot of people who look at polls as obnoxious and intrusive and thus either refuse to respond, or lie. The latest challenge is now to make estimates of where those people stand, so a sample can be accurate.
Also, pollsters, like stock market gurus, have their hot streaks and cold periods. Zogby had been gaining respect in the 90's, and extended that in 2000 with his last sampling before election day. If history is any guide, he may, sometime in the coming decade, reach a level of prominence that his polls are taken in the media as the word of God, then he will immediately crash and burn in a single election night.
Bottom line, as someone said during the campaign: It's an art, not a science... |
