I think that the last parameter is the fly in the ointment off your scenario, the dollar, I do not see the dollar dropping against the yen, and staying under parity with the Euro, for at least until next April, then we might have a chance of a break of the $300, and still, only a a chance. What will precipitate the fall of the dollar, IMHO, is the resumption of impossible balance of payments deficit, as Greenspan, once more, insist on using the US economic locomotive to pull out the world from the brink of a worldwide recession (and I believe that this year he'll succeed, but not late next year). One of the many reasons I have maintained that we will not go into a recession in the US this year, but will pay the piper later.
Zeev |
