Hi The Prophet; We're getting into silly semantics here, but your precise words were: "So your prediction is that RMBS will not get cheaper than 36% more than DDR."
You were putting words into my mouth here. What I said was: "As I've stated repeatedly, RDRAM isn't going to get as cheap as 50% more expensive than SDRAM. By comparison, DDR will be around 10% over SDRAM around a year from now, and sooner in the agreements between the memory makers and their customers." #reply-15563086
My statement was that DDR would eventually get to within 10% of SDRAM, while RDRAM would never get within 50% of SDRAM, it was you who brought in the 36%, which you got by dividing the price of RDRAM by that of DDR. This is not the way the calculation should be performed, instead, to test my prediction, you need to look at the premiums for DDR and RDRAM, and see whether the DDR premium reached 10% and the RDRAM premium stayed above 50%. This is very simple.
My hordes of posts on the subject never once took the ratio of RDRAM to DDR prices, but instead calculated exactly what I stated in my original post, the premiums of DDR and RDRAM over SDRAM pricing. It's not like I've been secretive about how I calculated these numbers. See #reply-15728088 #reply-15660852 #reply-15655671 #reply-15644600 #reply-15638393 #reply-15634209 #reply-15629516 #reply-15615177 #reply-15603254 #reply-15586173 #reply-15563113 for instance.
But since you know that RDRAM is the next memory standard, you do agree that it will get cheaper than 50% more expensive than SDRAM, don't you? And in fact, didn't an Intel suit state that the premium (at least for some customers) was going to be 10% by the end of the year just the other day? So I am sure you can accept that my sequence of numbers are fair ones to watch for this obvious and expected event (i.e. the drop in RDRAM pricing to below 50% above SDRAM pricing, and the failure of DDR to drop to 10% or below above SDRAM pricing.)
-- Carl
P.S. I already started taking data for 256MB, so I'm not going to switch in midstream to 128MB. Why don't you calculate the data for 128MB at the same time as I get the data for 256MB, and we will compare? Remember to only include PC800, average of 5 cheapest modules in the two categories, 128MB RIMMs and 128MB DDR DIMMs. |
