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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (42210)	4/28/2001 8:06:46 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (2) of 54805

I read the past ten posts and thought I was lost. I didn't know what thread I was on.... My excuse - I've been busy the past two weeks preparing Figaro for tonight's performance and of course it is golf season yet again. Fore! I did run across an interesting post over at the Fool that I thought was worth a cut and paste. I haven't researched the return listed to know if it is accurate or not, but nevertheless, it does make one think. Tekboy might like the historical implications. Here it is: =============== There are 68 Reasons why people did not invest in the stock market. 1934 Depression 1935 Spanish civil War 1936 Economy Still Struggling 1937 Recession 1938 War Clouds Gather 1939 War in Europe 1940 France Falls 1941 Pearl Harbour 1942 Wartime Price Controls 1943 Industry Mobilizes 1944 Consumer Goods Shortages 1945 Post-war Recession Predicted 1946 Dow Tops 200 - Market Too High 1947 Cold War Begins; 1948 Berlin Blockade 1949 Russia Explodes A-Bomb 1950 Korean War; 1951 Excess Profits Tax 1952 US Seizes Steel Mills 1953 Russia Explodes H-Bomb 1954 Dow Tops 300 - Market Too High 1955 Eisenhower Illness 1956 Suez Crisis 1957 Russia Launches Sputnik 1958 Recession 1959 Castro Seizes Power in Cuba 1960 Russia Downs U-2 Plane 1961 Berlin Wall Erected 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis 1963 Kennedy Assassinated 1964 Gulf of Tonkin 1965 Civil Rights Marches 1966 Vietnam War Escalates 1967 Newark Race Riots 1968 USS Pueblo Seized; 1969 Money Tightens - Markets Fall 1970 Cambodia Invaded - Vietnam War Spreads 1971 Wage Price Freeze 1972 Largest U.S. Trade Deficit Ever 1973 Energy Crisis 1974 Steepest Market Drop in Four Decades 1975 Clouded Economic Prospects 1976 Economic Recovery Slows 1977 Market Slumps 1978 Interest Rates Rise 1979 Oil Prices Skyrocket 1980 Interest Rates at All-Time High 1981 Steep Recession Begins 1982 Worst Recession in 40 Years 1983 Market Hits New Highs 1984 Record Federal Deficits 1985 Economic Growth Slows 1986 Dow Nears 2000 1987 Record Setting Market Decline 1988 Election Year 1989 October Mini-Crash 1990 Persian Gulf Crisis 1991 Communism Tumbles with the Berlin Wall 1992 Global Recession 1993 Health Care Reform 1994 Fed Raises Interest Rates SIX Times 1995 Dow Tops 5000 1996 Dow Tops 6000 1997 Hong Kong reverts to China 1998 Asian Economic 'Flu' 1999 NASDAQ High Tech Index doubles in a year 2000 Tech stocks crash But did you know that $10,000 invested in the stock market (Standard & Poor's 500 Index) in January of 1934 would have been worth over $20,820,656 in December 2000? Year after year, people think of reasons why they should not invest in the market. And year after year, the market outperforms virtually all other investment opportunities. =============== We won't all be around to see the next 68 reasons 'not to invest', but I would imagine in the year 2066, investors will be able to look back and see the above list updated to include yet another similar list of reasons as well as similar returns (if those returns are accurate in an attempt to hypothesize about an index in 1934 to 2000). Of course, Grandpa didn't have $10K to invest in 1934. However he might have a few $10K's in 2001 that will benefit his children and grandchildren and great grandchildren if invested today. What will we list for the year 2001 as a reason not to invest? Recession? Hoof and mouth? Fuel prices? Mad cow? Argentina? FED lowers rates 4+ times? Bush's tax plan passes? Economic growth slows? Telecom's debt issues? Tech stocks continue to crash extending the historical losses? Economy still struggling? Oil is up? Oil is down? Inventory related issues? How about the age old 'Middle East' crisis? Spy plane lands in China? California lives without AC? "The Wedding Planner" becomes a well loved movie? Or will it be....Buckley gets a cell phone? BB

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