Mike, I am just starting my weekend analysis, but ... yup ... the big bucks increased the net short position in the Spoos by 3,898 contracts (as of Tuesday's close) ... and if they held them, all those contracts are snorkeling right now. The commercials did marginally reduce their "play money" shorts on the E-mini .... but that is always "fast" money ... willing to jump in and out as a hedge against other action.
Of course, the 3,898 added net shorts can always be a hedge balanced against other action, too. But it does not bode well for the bulls in any case.
With my trend thing as bullish as it gets, I expect a pop on Monday. But then a correction.
One interesting note: I followed my Alternate Series on Friday, and it will assume the top slot for my EWave filter this coming week. Although it expects lower prices this coming week, it also establishes the March 22nd low as the low of the year.
Of course, any continued increase in net short positions by the big bucks next week would get me to flip-flop to the bears again.
Yesterday, on another site, I reminded someone who is a permabull (and has been since the Dow was at 6K many years ago) what a wise trader once taught me.
She said: "The market is your boss. Don't go to work every morning and tell the boss what to do. At least, not if you want to keep your job. And if the boss surprises you, which bosses always do, don't keep repeating: 'That's wrong!' Unless you don't like this line of work." |
