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Technology Stocks : 360Networks - TSX - TSIX

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To: Marty Lee who wrote (152)	4/28/2001 12:18:21 PM
From: Dexter Lives On	Read Replies (1) of 449

Hey Marty, What can I tell you? It didn't lose 90% of its market cap in a couple of months for nothing. What I will say is that Alcatel does have to walk a very fine line here. Ask yourself this: Is Alcatel better off if 360 succeeds in a more limited way then a $20 price indicated and continues to expand its network in a more gradual way, or if 360 goes under with all of the existing network/equipment on the market at 5-10 cents on the dollar? What hurts more for Alcatel? They took a $200M provision against $700M in convertible securities (converting at $21.xx/share). Are they ready to write off most of the rest and acknowledge a smaller future market for that gear? Don't forget about the banks - if they can rescue this thing they will, but they won't do it without an achievable business plan in front of them. Alcatel may have the connections and resources to help in this regard but remember they will ultimately act in their self-interest. The question is, did 360 do a good enough job aligning the interests of its key partner with its own interests? I think that's a little harder to assess. The fact that Alcatel's share price hasn't been hurt late in the week seems to indicate they will salvage this thing. In what fashion remains to be seen. investdb.theglobeandmail.com As I've said before, don't put money in this stock you aren't comfortable losing... Good luck to you. Rob

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