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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve
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To: TraderGreg who wrote (4391)4/28/2001 2:12:59 PM
From: Thomas M.   of 6710
 
The answer is that the contestant should always switch. There is a 1/3 chance of the car being behind each door. So, the combined probability that the goat is behind either door #2 or door #3 is 2/3. Since the car is shown not to be behind the door the host has chosen, the probability that the car is behind the door he didn't choose becomes 2/3. You have a 1/3 chance for Door 1, and 2/3 for the remaining door - so you should always switch.

Tom
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