Agree in part with following the weekly signals but I think the time to buy longs was back in March when I got my first set of "false/negated" buy signals then the "real" ones first week of April. Not trying to chest thump, claim we were the only ones saying so or anything, but I was saying all along the end of March on our site and I think here too that we were likely approaching a mid term bottom and that longer term players could start dipping although short term players should wait for better signals. If you look at my long term stochastics ( dark green waves), they were all bottoming in unison and the ADX (yellow line indicators) were all topping out. There were a slew of over sold signals firing off etc. As each individual stock started reversing, that proved to me the indicators could be trusted on the larger indexes and other stocks also. Once Don got his calls 1 buy, it was rally time. The 30s in the QQQ were a screaming buy then as was SFA at 34 etc. etc. Of course the SUNW, CSCO etc stuff was a bit more risky since the earnings were just plain not there so I stayed away from many of the individual plays that could have paid off a bit more than what I got.
I am not so sure I would dip too much long now as many of those indicators are now approaching mid to upper levels and I still have not seen any evidence this rally is anything more than a bear market rally. Don't get me wrong, I will likely buy some QQQ on the gap fill for s hort term bounce but for those with a longer term outlook, I would be selling into strength as we move up and be flat to short as we approach 2200 NDX. I sold my longs a couple weeks ago as the QQQ hit 42, 46 and 48. I was hoping to get them back around 40 but may have to go in around 42-43 if we don't drop faster soon.
I totally agree with the trackers instead of funds. Why pay some idiot to underperform plus pay taxes on it when you can buy an index without tax problems. My only concern is in regard to the QQQ, MSFT makes up 10% of the NDX thus I assume that it makes up the same weighting of the QQQ. While MSFT is strong and acting OK thus far, that is a lot rising on one stock. Hopefully when they shuffle things around in June, they will correct this and reduce it's weighting a bit down to around 4-5% or so.
As for the buy list that is like that fund you posted. It is a pretty good list but I wouldn't buy most of those banks. BAC is a horrible FA play with mounds of bad debt, deriviative exposure etc. Also a few of those tech telecom infrastructure names I just don't see turning around quickly.
I wouldn't rule out the oils, NG, cable buildout plays and for speculation, wireless and satellite hookup type stuff. The last mile is the one growth area not tapped out yet. There are tons of us out here that are begging anyone to get us broadband as I have mentioned before here. IMO, the backbones of the net have already been built enough to get by a few years, it is the last mile that needs to be built now. Either wire to the house, transmission towers to the neighborhoods or satellites to beam the signals to various states.
Good Luck,
Lee |
