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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 665.67

-0.9%

Nov 17 4:00 PM EST

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (76127)	4/28/2001 5:33:48 PM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Trusting The Indicators... ****************************** During a Bear Market supports fail, one after the other... Once trusted indicators become unreliable... This is what contributes to the fear of buying into a whipsaw... Once the BEAR is ending and supports start acting like supports again, there is a tendency to wait for the other shoe to drop... In the meantime the market keeps moving higher while we wait for more selling into the rallies... I am now seeing supports acting like supports... First the Nasdaq was stubborn at 1800... Then stubborn at 2000... All the while many of us were waiting for the break of supports once again... Mr./Ms. Market has decided to confound the majority once again by continuing to produce higher lows... One by one Linear Regression lines of 8, 34, 89, and 200 days have been bested by the Nasdaq as it continues to confound those who are expecting the next big wave of selling... At about 2600 the Nasdaq will meet its 400 day Linear Regression line... That will be the real test... In the meantime, a 17 month trendline back to October 2000 when the Nasdaq was at 3500 will be tested in the 2250 area in the next two weeks... With more rate cuts coming, a tax cut coming, and a stronger than expected economy, we should see the major indexes continue to surprise to the upside... Jim

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