50% Gains Investing Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 50% Gains Investing

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Dale Baker who wrote (24964)	4/29/2001 11:39:47 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) of 118717

Let's play with the numbers a bit more - the nonfarm work force is now 132.2 million in the US; with 4.3% unemployment they are figuring a willing work force of 136.7 million. So every .1% in the unemployment rate is 136,700 jobs. That's a lot of headlines, just to make up 136,700 layoffs. Anyone have an accurate number of layoffs since January? Now imagine that every job creates $40,000 in spending in the economy - I am picking that number out of a hat, maybe there are multiplier effects. And let's say we lose another million jobs, running unemployment to over 5%. The current GDP run rate is over $10 trillion (http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/beana/t101l01) if I am reading the table right. So if we lose $40 billion in earnings and another $40 billion in spending as a result, we have reduced our annual GDP by a grand total of 0.8%. So what happens to growth? A 2% growth rate in a $10 trillion GDP gives you another $200 billion for 2001. Knock out $80 billion and you get a .6% growth rate. I admit I gave up on the dismal science of economics a long time ago. And my math frequently sucks, But I would love to have someone tell me why these numbers make less sense than the panic-mongering I see everywhere else. Bottom line - if we lose another million jobs from here, we would still be hard pressed to slide into a sustained recession. And I would be surprised if any economist is forecasting a million-job drop in the near future. The drop would have to build on itself and not recover despite all the rate cuts in the pipeline too. Someone please correct me if I am wrong. It has happened before once or twice. ;<)

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next