Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 234.10

+1.7%

10:39 AM EST

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To: kash johal who wrote (37778)	4/29/2001 12:52:44 PM
From: fyodor_	Read Replies (1) of 275872

Kash: I think that you and the thread are under a severe misconception on PIV costs. The die cost difference is only $20-30. So intel will make tons of money on $200-250 PIV's compared to $150 PIII's. The issue is not so straight-forward. Intel can make 1 P4 instead of 2 PIIIs: (using your numbers, roughly) Profit on 1 P4 ~ $250 - $50 = $200 Profit on 2 PIIIs ~ $300 - $60 = $240 Yeah, these numbers are not that good, but it does get the message across. Intel's key will be to try and maintian PIII vs perhaps reduce celeron. Exactly. However, you can strike the "perhaps". Intel won't be increasing total wafers out this Q, so every P4 produced "steals" capacity from PIII or Celeron. If Intel can keep PIII unit shipments steady (while increasing P4), they are going to make a bundle of money. However, if PIII shipments fall by 2x the rise in P4 shipments (which I consider more likely), it's going to hurt. -fyo

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