Response to all three posts: Buffett is right but looking backward now. Those dot-bombs are down 90-99% and some are out of business. So his opinion is shared by all and priced in now. He also has never been one to understand the tech revolution. He invests in old-fashioned value. Therefore this story is a non-item.
The rate cut might seem to be priced in but it is a clear catalyst event with a definite psychological effect. It will raise the potential for at least modest rallies going into it. Absolutely. Unless the Fed surprises however it will be priced in by the time it happens or the day after. I will sell some stocks around that time if they've approached fair value IMHO. I'll look at that on a stock by stock basis. For instance some stocks like VZ can do well even during a tech sell-off.
I see no catalyst for the Naz to go under 2000 if it hasn't already done so. I would be very surprised if it did and I think that would be a buy-on-the-dip day if it happened.
The only way I see it happening if a gang downgrades the semis again and this time it sticks. But some semis are looking like attractive buys right now, like RMBS and CYMI.
Shorts are simply too fragmented bruised and battered to put up a big enough fight. And targeting which stocks? The CSCO and NT types are already down near their lows again.
Everything else either looks strong, fair or cheap.
DOW up to 11000? Sure. Some resistance there I'm sure and profit-taking. The market's not going straight up. We could see 13,000 by the 4th quarter. But 11000 is attainable by Fed cut day. So is Naz 2450 and some of the small cap tech dogs will out-perform both. Certain energy stocks might as well but I'm not a student of them (yet).
So unless there's a major negative international event I don't see this rally subsiding until mid May. That's the way I'm playing it (not selling anything until then) so hope I'm right.
Hate to repeat but good stocks which haven't rallied off their lows yet: SBC, WCOM, FON, UIS, NOVL, PALM. I don't see any real downside on any of these for various value reasons. PALM is the real sleeper here as something may be brewing. (just a hunch) Also expect pops/deal announcements from LOR and LU.
SCNT, XOXO, RRRR, AETH dogs I like here. Big guys GLW, EMC, VZ, AAPL, HWP all look pretty good here too. And no, I don't own all of the above. But would buy them all at these prices. What other criteria can one use? If you wouldn't buy it at current prices then sell it. |
