Paranormally Psychotic DSP as a Predictive Methodology Message Board

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Pastimes : Paranormally Psychotic DSP as a Predictive Methodology

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To: Eddy Blinker who wrote (6)	4/30/2001 6:21:19 AM
From: E. Charters	of 10

Prediction of linear and non linear systems was predicted by Claude Shannon (father of information theory, whose theories govern the circuitry of the electronic computer) as being possible. Some mathematicians have averred that the market is a randomly varying event that cannot be predicted either finely at all, or broadly - safely. Fourier, the Canadian Wheat Board, Hamilton, Kondratiev and Shannon have shown otherwise. If the actions of the market are reactions planned or not, to conditions of the markets themselves then they follow a system however chaotic and that system must have cycles that are self-influential. What the Wheat Board does to predict storage and transportation needs for the following season is to apply Fourier analysis to the seemingly chaotic farm production and demand (sales) figure of the past years. This results in a figure which is a very accurate predictor of next year's production and demand. This allows them economies of planning. How can this predict what will grow and what will sell? Can climatic trends and people's habits or future desires be predicted? It is shown above that they are dependent cycles too and their past must show their future. The Wheat Board's Methods work and are subject of many studies and literature in economic texts. Everything that is subject to change must change to a pattern. It is impossible for its variables to reject dependency on other influencing factors. At the root of all the factors are the rhythmic balances of natural law. We would not expect planets to rotate around the earth in random orbits. Growth in soil obeys laws too. Climate changes in broad patterns of flux that are regular. Fourier first saw that sharp demarcations of balance in nature could be explained by the superpositions of regular very predictable sine cyclics. This could explain all seemingly chaotic behaviour in nature. If nature fluxes in this way then all things that flow from natural law must obey the same flux patterns and flow in the same way. Bugs feeding at the bottom of a pond of buyer of stock all work to satisfy the same root impulses. It is the very nature of the mass action of the stock market that makes it evenly predictable by rigorous analysis. Combine enough random action and the overall pattern must bend to a flux of a predictable nature. Shannon realized this and applied an unkown method to make a good deal of money on the market many years ago. Few mathematicians today would reject his claims as he is revered as the greatest of modern information theory mathematicians. Kondratiev has shown too (circa 1890 in Russia) that all economies were subject to cycles. He mapped about 70 components or more of prices over 500 years and found that when all the price cycles of commodities were superposed that they flucutated in rhythmic waves that corresponded to the economic cycles of depression and boom. Now this sounds like a truism i.e. prices gathered = economy, but what Kondratiev was saying was that the wave could be extrapolated and the cyles taken apart to get future prices of the components. This is basic Fourier theory. Elliot took the Kondratiev waves and put them into a computer to better predict their proximate formuala and predict. This was the basis of Elliot waves. For the last 20 years DSP researchers have been taking random fluctuations of signals and trying to predict their pattern by certain linear and non linear techniques. Recently with special high speed processors that are calculating 128 bits wide they have been able to do real time fast Fourier and Hartely transforms and other algorithms to signal process. This is the basis for DSL modems and the like which would have been thought impossible to do 10 years ago. Without linear and non linear prediction methodologies the process would not work. It was because of this breakthrough in DSP that many workers were saying that similar seeminly random fluxes such as the stock market were also predictable and even controllable. There are several other instances of this that I have personally observed. A relative of mine who worked for the MTO as an economist used to predict the economy by these methods. For ten years he predicted the growth in the Ontario economy within 1/4%. Previously they had not been able to even predict its direction of growth let alone come that close. This allowed MTO to save millions of dollars if they listened to the prediction. Naturally the Harris gov't let him go. They preferred not to let reality disturb their perception of the good of their own theories. I subscribed to a technical analysis newsletter that predicted the rise of bottom feeders in the market. For five years this system was able to predict the pop-up phenomona of new stocks that had promotion by scanning the market for volume and price accumulation. There are programs on the market that are not used for Stock market prediction but DSP and other linear prediction. They use widely recognized techniques for summing waves and predicting their variance on extrapolation. The selection of two variables tau and de are what concerns the human predictor. With enough data and right tau and de one can predict trends of complex waves that vary across a datum line. i.e rise and fall in value over time. What one needs for perfect prediction is to correlate phase space of the cycles. In other words what one does is map one flux against another in a graph, i.e speed against displacement. (position of a pendulum say on the x line against it speed on the y line). But one does not really have speed in the market unless one maps it by the hour-trade.. so to synthesize this one maps one days or time cycle's phase against another day's. i.e no. of trades at noon against the next day's at the same time. I have seen similar techniques work. there is no reason to suppose that they will not work here. In fact the factors that govern the rise and fall of stocks are decidely not random. Would that they were. In fact all prices are manipulated in predictable patterns and are subject to rise from bottom or unrealized price to topping near the highest possible valuations. When this is seemingly askew in technology stocks what it underlines is the low relative value of the dollar in relation to valuation. Money supply is the key here. If the prices of tech stocks were divided by the growth in the M1 from 1987 you could see that their price/earning's ratio expections were not 300 to one but 30 to one. I predicted the rise in the price of gold from 1977 to 1984 from 77 dollars per ounce to 480 dollars per ounce in a simple graph extrapolation in a thesis for Haileybury school of mines in 1976. I was right within 3 dollars. Kondratiev's cycles were 55 years for the short and 70 years for the long. Add 70 to 1929 and what do you get? Are Fourier/Kondratiev wrong? Russian socialist of 1917 thought so. What do you think? The key is in the timing. You have to have drop forged steel balls with nitride hardening and Scrooge size vaults of cash to short the market for two years. But it works. EC<:-}

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