Still selling the rally. At the beginning of April, I was 100% long the market. As of today, I am 70% long (Old Economy Value), 20% put LEAPs (tech stocks), and 5% cash. Consumer spending is coming down, consumer sentiment is coming down, and, IMO, neither is anywhere near hitting bottom. Investor expectations (and PEs, especially in techs) are still too high.
I was surprised at the GDP numbers. If I'm right, they will be coming down. I'm still betting that this recovery is U-shaped, and we are just at the beginning of the flat bottom part of the U, so we need to retest lows at least once, before a sustainable rally happens. If I'm wrong, my puts will lose money. |
