DK:
Your response is not only entertaining but a good illustration of what happens when you extrapolate growth using a low beginning number.
As to wild assumptions, lets differentiat independent facts from my assumptions:
Independent facts:
SIZE OF DIGITAL PLATE MARKET. It was this number that drives the model. Source is Seybold, See Toms (a long) post
G and A expense of 30% - see Presstek financials
Assumptions-you refer to as wild:
1) 50% market share for Presstek. I agree, it is wild---it should be less than 20%
2) Gross margins increase from 35% to 50%. I agree, it is wild ---Competition everywhere, should declining to 25% or less, not increasing
3) 60% of digital plate market can use PRST plates. I agree, it is wild, short run printing is less than 40% of the market.
The rest of the equation is mathmatical. Tell me, its allways easy to
criticize, so instead of criticizing my assumptions, tell me what assumptions you think are realistic as to market size , sales potential and margins in the year 2000. If you have better information, share it.
I doubt it you have any. |
