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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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To: Chip McVickar who started this subject	5/1/2001 3:01:05 PM
From: Chip McVickar	of 12410

Scenario Lets see if I'm right in 6 months to 2 years. <smile> So far my contention that the USA Economy is not as bad as GWa would like you to believe is correct. (see link at bottom) Furthermore, the broad Bull Market is Intact (except for the Nasdaq) and further evidence can be found within the broader indexes: VLE weekly stockcharts.com internal measures like: NYSE Adv/Decln stockcharts.com NYSE new highs/lows stockcharts.com However, the investment psychology has been changed by the election of Bush and Cheney's political agenda..., and this will mute the strength of the broad market indexes and any rise will be substantially reduced over the 2 maybe 4 years. Political polarization will return, very little will be accomplished, and republicans will lose seats in the next congressional elections. Looking for wide range bound swings in the broader markets of the DJIA and S&P500 with traders producing quick moves down on polarized politics and international pressures. Nasdaq will remain a second tier index and muted. Large trading houses will not "kill the golden goose," but will stress the lower edges. We are living in an experimentally managed financial and economic society, which has so far worked since 1970's. It should continue for many years..? Dollar remains strong US long term Interest Rates remain high Energy costs remain high ECU will have problems Inflationary pressures remain modest Increased productivity will be sustained New Generation of technology is evolving Commodities Gold will rise modestly Wheat will enter a sustained price rise Mad Cow will come to USA Soybeans and corn remain weak Genetically Modified Ingredient labels will become law Weather extremes will remain a serious problem briefing.com >>Big Picture Construction demand is holding up despite the sharp economic weakening. Residential spending rebounded after a 4th quarter decline as the downtrend in confidence fights the support of lower mortgage rates. Businesses haven't significantly tightened their belts yet. Volatility in all the components leave monthly movement less predictable as the longer term growth slows. The Fed's tightening bit the housing market strongly in 2000 but a modest rebound appears to be at work. Sporadic growth in commercial spending and public spending (fattened budgets) leave the month to month growth fairly volatile.<<

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