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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve
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To: TraderGreg who wrote (4391)5/1/2001 10:39:10 PM
From: The Philosopher  Read Replies (1) of 6710
 
No matter what's behind the door you picked, there's always one door with a goat behind it. So the fact that a door with a goat behind it has been opened means absolutely nothing. It can ALWAYS be that way whether the door you initially picked has the car or a goat.

So you now have two doors, one has the car, one has the goat. There is no way of knowing which. Your odds are 50-50. Doesn't matter whether you switch or not. There's no benefit to switching, and no cost to switching either. All the Host did was improve your odds from 1/3 to 1/2. It's as though he had given you only two doors to start with.
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