Now I'm on board with this company. I think Roy King can turn this ship around to compete with WebMethod and Tibco and Vitria. Here's what I found from Yahoo:
CC...research note
by: pxlw_is_the_best (34/M/Oklahoma) 05/02/01 12:44 am EDT
Msg: 22876 of 22877
Key Notes from the CC
1. Work force reductions with a total cut of 21 percent leaving 584 full-time employee's
2. They have closed one office and are reducing the space in Chicago as part of the restructuring
3. They have stopped 3 product's that were NOT profitable for the company
4. Main focus is on Industry specific solutions
5. They will take a 2 million charge in Q2 in response to the layoff's
6. Burn rate is now 1 million a month until JUNE, then it's BREAK-EVEN until OCTOBER then it's profitable there after.
7. The AVERAGE booking for a new contract is 400-600K
a. Finical service and insurance average is 400k
b. Health care 450K
c. Telecommunications 600K
Most of the MAIN DEALS are 500K+
8. They can do "MORE WITH LESS" R&D cut's were trimming the incompetent to sum it up, if they couldn't handle a million dollar plus deal then they were CUT!
9. 20% of there partner's are bringing in 80% of there partner revenue, consequently they are NOW in talks with 2 NEW partner's and negotiating with a handful of other partner's and there ALLIANCE will be announced soon......prior to this Q ending.
10. Last Q 17 deals slipped or 7.5 million....2/3rds ARE BACK and BOOKED, currently 5.4 million have a verbal agreement and the few other's are being aggressively worked on.
11. Revenue outlook going forward
Q2 30-35 MILLION
Q3 and Q4 would then make up the remainder of the 110 MILLION....BUT a LARGE PORTION of this revenue would be in DIRECT relationship to the ALLIANCES that will be announced later this month or next.....
Current partner's that are of some importance....
1. ORCL
2. BEAS
3. TIBX
4. CPQ
5. PSFT
6. CMRC
7. ISLD
12. Main focus going forward
a. Partner's
b. Existing customer Revenue growth
c. Focus on the MAIN profitable verticals and solutions
d. Product in the pipeline
e. Setting AGGRESSIVE Target's but one's that are achievable
f. Focus on the larger BUT profitable deals
13. NEW CONTRACTS from large customer's
a. Major Brokerage Bank (Duetse bank)<--spelled wrong
b. Large Telecommunication's in the Southeast
c. Major Insurer
d. Major technology company on the west coast
14. Competitive Outlook
CTO states that Microsoft announced Dot.Net which is based on a service framework and MCTR provides a "Snap In" to the MSFT infrastructure, if it does come about then MCTR has the ability to PROVIDE the transformation routing software, they are going to sell the connectivity technology but whether MSFT will try to dominate the whole space is unknown, the CTO is not sure because MSFT does try to dominate everything BUT he feels MCTR will ultimately win in this space do to the existing customer's and the technology they already poses such as the adapter's ETC:
15. Financing going forward at this point, they have enough to last till Dec. 31st PLUS that line of credit if needed, by fall they will be profitable, but cash flow positive guidance is still sketchy.
Re: CC...research note pt2
by: pxlw_is_the_best (34/M/Oklahoma) 05/02/01 12:44 am EDT
Msg: 22877 of 22881
On a PROJECTED REVENUE trading multiple it would be fair to say over the next month they should trade at 2X Revenue for the fiscal year 2001 which is 168 MILLION, but giving the standard discount so we can have an upside surprise, even though guidance is for that amount, I say 150 million.
150 million should give a market cap of 300 million....MCTR currently trades with a 58 million market cap so that makes the NEAR TERM future stock price somewhere in the range of $9.75 would be the 2 TIMES forward revenue for fiscal 2001...
Let's say MCTR gets 1/2 that...FOLKS WE STILL GOT A DOUBLE at 1X REVENUE...and KING will get his 2+
1 month target 5 bucks
2 month target 8-10 bucks BUT if he blow's EARNINGS then expect to tank
6 month target 12-15 bucks on a 2.5X multiple (This will also allow MCTR to get 2 Q's under there belt as the RESTRUCTURED MCTR, if all goes well then I would expect this within 6 months)
Pix..UPGRADES MCTR to SUPER DUPER LOOPER KAZUPER STRONG BUY!!
Do your own DD :) |
