Michael, I believe the boomer argument makes sense. I am a boomer also, but you have 16 years on me, and certainly more experience with investing as well. Overall I think the market should do well over the next five years plus because of that and other things, such as the increased productivity from technology, and the fact that the tech market has corrected so much. However, the tech bears really got me thinking about things this time (as opposed to the other market downturns in the 90's). I am not as sure anymore about the bullish argument, but I am staying with it. I sort of feel that it is impossible to figure it out, that we will just have to wait to find out. I am referring to the bear view that the Nasdaq will take 5 to 10 years to make a new high. My expectations are not for a new high on the Nasdaq within a couple of years, but I sure hope we can hit 3000 at least by the end of this year. Hopefully we will beat the market by investing in companies like AMAT, and hopefully technology is undervalued here relative to most other areas of the market (that is a tough argument to win though). I just heard the CEO of TXN on NBR tonight, and he painted a rosy picture. He argued that bandwidth and wireless will drive tech over the next decade and the growth rates will be greater than we saw in the 90's. Another guest on the show, however, thinks this is just a bear market rally in the Nasdaq here.
Off topic a bit more, my main goal is to do what you have done, family and all. The financial thing relates to that, but does not drive it. I was jolted though by this decline. If we saw the bottom then I am ok with the whole thing, but if we are going down to Nasdaq 1000, then there is going to be at least one unhappy camper here.
Lets hope the bears are wrong. The more of them we have, the better our chances, in the short term at least.
John |
