API's = Ka-Ching time...
THE TREND IS MOST DEFINITELY NOT - OUR FRIEND HERE ANY LONGER ~
... and the API's were THE leading "EARLY" indicator to the collapse of the prior cycle.
Now; does that mean they will necessarially be "THE" leading indicator once again ? - that they ALLWAYS will, or must allways be THE leading indicator ?
...No; of course not.
But, that's the mindset of Chiahuahua's.
That's the WRONG questions to be asking... akin to buying the WRONG index and thinking you're "max levered" when your'e not etc (VBG).
The correct question, or rather the correct concept; is that it is used by a significant portion of the professional investment community and has been mentioned quite often in various analyst research reports as a primary exit indicator for this cycle - that they WILL use.
- ie: knowing how the Street will react to the news; is often more important than in correctly predciting what the news will be.
I plan to be out of the patch by the "buzzer" today & will turn on a dime "SHORT" on a few mo-mo plays.
I'll then take my short-term swing trade profits from these shorts & begin to buy longterm "LEAP PUTS" - not for "maximum leverage" to the downside - because "LEAPS" don't offer maximum leverage (listening Tommy ?) - but, instead for the best "risk vs reward" way to begin to build an outlying "short" position in the patch - with "time" as my friend, not my leverage.
We may see yet another trading range to play; but once again - we're on a ramping disconnection on a risk vs reward basis for playing all remaining pullbacks for yet another "trading range" DCB play... as it's "when and NOT if" - that we'll ultimately get a pullback that won't produce a DCB/Trading range rally; but instead will be followed with yet another pullback & then it's too late... you've allready given back 2 years of profits & hard work !
ie: we were at OSX 120 - 13 mos ago last April; so if you end up riding this back down to 120 & it doesn' come back - you give up at least 13 mos of gains & work; if the OSX then pulls back sub 100 as it nearly did a month, or so ago & as it did last Winter - to say OSX 82-85; then you just gave back 2 years of gains; as were were OSX 80 at the end of the spring '99 rally.
The "buy the Dip" game in the Oilpatch - if it isn't now over - has quickly lost its risk vs reward luster.
The "risk vs reward" meter is tanking here... "time" is our enemy, not our friend here any longer. This is LATE CYCLE, this is a MATURE cycle...and it's beginning to be "make, or break time" for the OSX here & this API trend is a potential deathknell...
Respect history; or be destined to repeat it ... ala 97-98 API Deja Vu all over again ~
I'll repeat for the Chihuahua crowd:
ie: the API's
THE TREND IS MOST DEFINITELY - NO LONGER OUR FRIEND
... collapsing demand brought down the last cycle & it's poised to do so once again - whodathunkit ?
Maybe if we see some "fundamental" reversal very quickly in the supply/demand dynamics - we'll get another trading opp here... but it had better be about 3-4 strong draw weeks in a row & it had better happen fast, very fast...and holding & staying in long here - while we find out if it does, or doesn't is a fools game... I'd exit 100% pre-open & at the buzzer fwiw - all of it; every last oilpatch penny.
Imagine; OSX 140 - in Sept '99 "may" become this cycle's high for the service & drillers & that infamous last week of December "may" turn out to be the highs for the Nat Gas E&P's.... whodathunkit ?
DrivelBits... were you the one who took 75% of your funds off last Septat OSX 140, who called a top & said cash in those NG plays last New Years Eve (VBG) ? or, was it "Mr. LEVERAGE" - Tommy Boy ?
... I can't remember (VBG)?
KA-CHING... CASH time once again.
... let "opportunity" - long, or short; or rather - long AND short; come to you... don't chase, be patient; you DON'T - "HAVE" to be in & sometimes being out - is both offensive AND defensive...
CASH = OPPORTUNITY; allways has & allways will.
CASH = OPTIONS and that is what you want here... "options" to be able to "act" and not to be forced to "react"...
Is that "taps" - I'm hearing in the background for this cycle... could it be; is it ?
whodathunkit ?
Ka-Ching
PS: ... I'd be pulling up those stops on a trailing basis on golds & silver into this rally for a significant percentage of my holdings.
Personally; I'll keep a 20-25%ish "core position" but will use those tight trailing stops on the rest...
PS S:
.... the BLACK to YELLOW GOLD - opportunity TRAIN is now boarding ~ |
